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  1. #1
    Player
    dutiona's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    159
    Character
    Lanfear Shaitan
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 90

    [Transparency request] Publish the RNG engine of the lottery system

    In computer science pure randomness does not exist. It is emulated with random number generator (RNG) engines whose performances can be very good or very bad, depending on how it is initialized, implemented, etc.
    For instance, a badly initialized RNG engine will draw numbers that are NOT random at ALL and can even be PREDICTED.

    After this MASSIVE screw up that we are witnessing on the housing system, I believe the player base have the right to know HOW the "fairness" of the system was actually enforced by Square Enix in FFXIV.

    We want to know :
    - what RNG engine did SE choose (at the very least Mersenne Twister??)
    - how the engine was seeded
    - a graph of the distribution of the engine actually picking 1B numbers : show the variance and the standard deviation.
    - we also want the actual result of the lottery (all the tickets that were drawn) to prove the lottery was fair (graph of distribution, var and std)

    As far as I'm concerned, I do not believe the system was fair seeing how it was buggy. I think I'm not alone in this case.

    tl;dr: I want PROOF OF FAIRNESS OR ROLLBACK.
    (24)

  2. #2
    Player
    Olivia0x25's Avatar
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    Nov 2017
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    54
    Character
    Olivia Darkrose
    World
    Zalera
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 33
    They did a random number between 0 and list length :^)

    That way when someone bid with zero competition, list length says 1, but the random number is between 0 and 1. 50/50 chance it's 0 or 1. :^)
    (9)

  3. #3
    Player
    Shibi's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    2,756
    Character
    Lala Felon
    World
    Zurvan
    Main Class
    Gunbreaker Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by dutiona View Post
    ...what RNG engine did SE choose...
    I'm going to guess...

    Eeny, meeny, miny, moe
    Catch a tiger by the toe
    If he hollers let him go
    Eeny, meeny, miny, moe
    Yoshi told me
    To pick the very best one
    And you are not it
    so... 0

    Disclaimer, I got a 0 as the only entry. Yoshi hates me.
    (24)

  4. #4
    Player
    Nythia's Avatar
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    Sep 2019
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    17
    Character
    Nythia Ironstone
    World
    Zalera
    Main Class
    Goldsmith Lv 44
    Ironic that in most programming languages a single line of code would have prevented what has happened.

    while result is equal to zero, re-run lottery roll.
    (12)

  5. #5
    Player
    dutiona's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    Character
    Lanfear Shaitan
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 90
    Yes, but what tells you the number 0 is not more likely to be generated than the number 1 or 2 ?
    That is what I'm asking here ^^ . Proof of that fairness.
    (2)

  6. #6
    Player
    AnnaUK's Avatar
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    May 2019
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    159
    Character
    Liara Dawn
    World
    Raiden
    Main Class
    Dancer Lv 81
    I guess it's to slow down those who use alts to bid all over the place?
    (0)

  7. #7
    Player
    Iscah's Avatar
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    Nov 2017
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    14,033
    Character
    Aurelie Moonsong
    World
    Bismarck
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by dutiona View Post
    Yes, but what tells you the number 0 is not more likely to be generated than the number 1 or 2 ?
    That is what I'm asking here ^^ . Proof of that fairness.
    Do we need proof of that fairness?

    Admittedly I don't know what the numbers are on how many successes there were and how many got the zero glitch, but the number of complaints with the system is naturally skewed to be 100% made up of people who got zero. The people whose lottery result was a real number have no reason to speak up.

    The prevalence of the glitch would probably (I speculate, not a maths expert) be best worked out if you could gather up a list of all the instances where a zero occurred, map it against the number of people bidding and see if it matches the random-chance expectation of happening mostly to single bids (50/50 chance of occurring) and not so much to contested lots where the dud outcome only has one chance out of many.
    (6)
    Last edited by Iscah; 04-17-2022 at 01:56 AM.

  8. #8
    Player
    Moonlite's Avatar
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    Feb 2014
    Location
    Uldah
    Posts
    1,471
    Character
    Midnight Falcon
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post
    Do we need proof of that fairness?

    Admittedly I don't know what the numbers are on how many successes there were and how many got the zero glitch, but the number of complaints with the system is naturally skewed to be 100% made up of people who got zero. The people whose lottery result was a real number have no reason to speak up.

    There is also the question of chance though. They didn't know they were bidding against the system as well. Maybe a FC bids multiple times on one house only then instead of spreading out bids, since they were bidding against +1 on every plot.
    (1)

  9. #9
    Player
    dutiona's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    Character
    Lanfear Shaitan
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post
    Do we need proof of that fairness?

    Admittedly I don't know what the numbers are on how many successes there were and how many got the zero glitch, but the number of complaints with the system is naturally skewed to be 100% made up of people who got zero. The people whose lottery result was a real number have no reason to speak up.
    As far as I'm concerned, if they can prove that the system did fair draws then I'll consider every plot winner legitimate. They won the lottery against N+1 bidder, N being the actual number of other tickets than theirs and +1 for the 0 ticket.
    If they cannot prove this fairness, and the graph shows for instance that the tickets 2 or 0 was drawn a lot more that the other tickets then I (and we should all) demand a rollback because the system was not fair at all.
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player
    Menriq's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    583
    Character
    Meridia Astra
    World
    Maduin
    Main Class
    Bard Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by dutiona View Post
    As far as I'm concerned, if they can prove that the system did fair draws then I'll consider every plot winner legitimate. They won the lottery against N+1 bidder, N being the actual number of other tickets than theirs and +1 for the 0 ticket.
    If they cannot prove this fairness, and the graph shows for instance that the tickets 2 or 0 was drawn a lot more that the other tickets then I (and we should all) demand a rollback because the system was not fair at all.
    I didn't win what I bid for, and I was #1. I doubt your "demand" is going to happen. Assuming you have some development experience, I'll let you figure out why you aren't going to get your rollback.
    (2)

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