Engaging in entertainment content should never be "work". Effort? Sure. Work? Nah.
Advocating for the mess that is the mad dash for property every time they release a new ward or area over supporting what would be an at will engagement for a chance for a house (dependent on actual interest), shows a bias toward a system you know you can game VS a system that's objectively fair.
Housing right now is the actual PVP of FFXIV. People are trying to one up each other or beat each other for rewards that skew towards those with more time and guile to dedicate to the cause. Click bot, stripped down client w/ teleportation, sitting up patch nights and hammering the login. These should not figure into a limited resource.
You keep talking about how it's an astronomical chance.. but right now it's wayyy worse of a chance to get a house unless you're willing to game the everliving heck out of the system. I have a medium house right now because I had to lug a gaming laptop along on a vacation, wake up at 3am at the local time to login and join the mad dash for new properties. I didn't even get one in the new ward, i was just lucky enough to be searching the after-releases for movers and I already had a small house to upgrade from. I would trade that in a second for just being able to login whenever weekly, check the listings and drop my bid. Nuts to living my life around the patch schedule of a game or being a slave to RNG house releases, gimme the lottery any day.
It's hard to imagine someone dropping money on a house just "cause lol" when they now are committed to logging in every month and a half or so to keep it. If they care so little the house will go back on the market and someone who actually wants it will get a chance.
And as so many others have said the chances aren't "Jumbo cactpot" they are only against whomever has also put in a bid. You want a small house that nobody else really does? Probably 1:50 chance. Also keep in mind that on opening day the entire population (20k?) cannot all bid on every house. Chances are you're going against 200-300 people at best with most focused on medium or large houses. Also remove the people who already have houses and aren't looking to swap and those who ARE are likely only looking to upgrade. You want a small house? Probably a pretty good chance compared to winning the cactpot.