Originally Posted by Conundrum

It's almost never worth asking about something RNG related on an MMO forum. People will line up to say "RNG is RNG" like it's some bit of divine knowledge. They don't understand RNG can be broken, and even if it isn't broken pretty much all games put modifiers and weights on things so it's not really as random as people like to pretend.

Because it is. In single player games there's usually ways to cheese the RNG or boost your odds as you progress. This is an MMO game, meant to take a while to do many of the things in game. No way to boost your odds for that kind of stuff.

There's also RNG on top of RNG.

Say it's 75% chance to get through door one. Then a separate 65% chances to get through door 2. That's stacking the RNG on top of its self so the odds quickly get lower and lower as you go through. Odds stacking on top of one another quickly gives you VERY 'lottery winning' odds no matter how you look at it.

Originally Posted by Denji

I've been repeatedly doing quite literally hundreds of level 80 maps for shell leather with my FC. I'm not even joking, we've done a hundred-odd of them now.

We made it to the end ONCE and not a single one of the maps has dropped a single thing of shell leather. It's insane. I am curious if they've done something.

Well there was some discussion a week or two ago about retainer ventures being noticeably nerfed. They now drop a lot fewer venture crates which of course drop dyes, the obvious logic there is more mog station dye sales.

I don't know of anything the bean counters have to gain by nerfing maps, they don't compete with mog station...unless you stretch it to say the items crafted with map drops compete with mog station outfits.

Originally Posted by Bacent

Because it is. In single player games there's usually ways to cheese the RNG or boost your odds as you progress. This is an MMO game, meant to take a while to do many of the things in game. No way to boost your odds for that kind of stuff.

There's also RNG on top of RNG.

Say it's 75% chance to get through door one. Then a separate 65% chances to get through door 2. That's stacking the RNG on top of its self so the odds quickly get lower and lower as you go through. Odds stacking on top of one another quickly gives you VERY 'lottery winning' odds no matter how you look at it.

I notice how you conveniently didn't address the part about weights and modifiers.

Retainer ventures are "random", but you're going to get a lot more Bom Bokos than Venture Crates or rare decorations or Glamour Items.

Gambler's fallacy.

A tale from long ago for those with blind faith in RNG.

Originally Posted by Bacent

Because it is. In single player games there's usually ways to cheese the RNG or boost your odds as you progress. This is an MMO game, meant to take a while to do many of the things in game. No way to boost your odds for that kind of stuff.

There's also RNG on top of RNG.

Say it's 75% chance to get through door one. Then a separate 65% chances to get through door 2. That's stacking the RNG on top of its self so the odds quickly get lower and lower as you go through. Odds stacking on top of one another quickly gives you VERY 'lottery winning' odds no matter how you look at it.

Is it meant to take a while? If it was, why can you just get lucky and get a ton of stuff first try?

Originally Posted by Saraide

Is it meant to take a while? If it was, why can you just get lucky and get a ton of stuff first try?

You said it yourself.

Originally Posted by Sarnai

Lately decided to run maps with my friends, and every run we did (like 5 days for 3-5 maps per person), and almost half of the time we're getting kicked after the 1st floor. Or 2nd. And while I can believe in bad luck, it happens with different people on different doors. So is it only me?... Seems to have started since late ShB

Simple thought experiment for you... Grab and flip a coin.

First flip is the portal, heads you go in. (It's a higher chance, but you will get the idea)
Second flip is to continue, heads you go in.
Third flip is to continue, heads you go in.

Originally Posted by Saraide

Is it meant to take a while? If it was, why can you just get lucky and get a ton of stuff first try?

There's always people just getting plain lucky in everything that happens. Because luck isn't something you can factor in. It just happens.

On the topic of maps, I can't remember when, if ever, the most current timeworn maps were selling for practically peanuts. The EW and ShB maps have all seemingly tanked big time. Sucks for the lazy gatherers like myself as the older maps seem to take longer to farm. :P