Trends in content types and faux difficulty

[Lux_Rayna]

Lux... no.

This is how it works without a wall of text. The chance of failing all 100 times with a 97% failure rate is 0.97^100. This is equivalent to 0.0476 or 4.76% chance. The chance of failing 10 times with the same rate of failure is 0.97^10 which equals 0.7374 or 73.74%. You have a lower chance of failure with more repetitions.

Yes in the end everyone will have the same rate of drop after massive amounts of runs, but you will not gain more equipment per day only running 10 times than a person who will run 100 times. It's the same proportional loss no matter what. You succeed 3% of the time and lose 97%.

I never said you would get more equipment per day. What I am saying is that the more time you invest per day in losing odds, the more time you lose per day. Is it proportionally the same? Sure. But wasting 10 hours is a lot more exhausting than wasting 2 hours. You continue repetitions, but in measured amounts that wont leave you burned out. That was the point.

As far as statistics through repetition goes, I appreciate the lesson but I fail to see how that affects the probability of individual outcomes. All you've told me is that a given probability of failing x number of times/100. Does that mean attempt 50 has a higher probability of success than attempt 15? Does attempt 99 have higher chance of success than attempt 2? From what I've read and understood, probability of individual outcomes will always remain constant. Calculating the probability of a series of outcomes (ie getting 6 drops out of 100 runs, or failing 100 times out of 100) should not affect the probability of individual outcomes (each successive run). If this is grossly incorrect then please do more math for me. But I can't find a damn thing that states otherwise at the moment.

Anyway looking at the coin flip example I appreciate the correction. Still, it doesn't change the fact that spamming something doesnt help you in a low-odds game. What matters is consistent trials. If you consistently try you will succeed, but you can't be consistent if you get burnt out and quit. Hence, its quite foolish to waste 97% of your effort in ways that will burn you out. It is much smarter, and equally as effective I might add, to spread out your trials in a way that failure will not have much of an effect on you.

EDIT: As for the random hater who contributed nothing intelligent to the discussion, I love you. No homo. And i'm sorry but being corrected does not shut me up. Call me incessant if you will, but as a smart man I really have no fear of being corrected and saying something incorrect. It only makes me smarter. Only children or ppl with low-self esteem run away from discussions because they were incorrect about something. C'mon son lol...don't place your insecurities on me.