I literally can't play this game?

[CazzT]

No I'm saying that they didn't have "years of data" pointing to this current tremendous spike. They had what ... half a year?

And then you get into the discussion of how hard it would be to procure servers in that half a year and I have no clue about that, sorry

But they did have data to predict such a spike. But you have to look at more than just FFXIV's numbers to see it. Which is what their market analysts would be doing as part of their job.

WoW's numbers steadily trending downward over the past 10 years.
FFXIV's number steadily trending upward, and showing an increase in rate of growth in the past five years.

Another thing market analysts watch is investors and stock holders, and Blizzard's position in that regard was already hurting going back several years.

Streamers starting to show lack of interest in WoW and increased interest in FFXIV, prior to the spike in 2021 (this spike that you keep focusing on as though no other data exists), shows a very high possibility of a mass exodus on the horizon. If not for the lawsuit against Blizz, this exodus would still be on the horizon and a very likely event.

There were numerous indications that they needed to act BEFORE the launch. Much this data goes back five and more years. So your claim of not having data? Market analytics exists for the very reason of predicting problems like this. And they look years ahead based on years of established data.

[Raieyn]

No I'm saying that they didn't have "years of data" pointing to this current tremendous spike. They had what ... half a year?

And then you get into the discussion of how hard it would be to procure servers in that half a year and I have no clue about that, sorry

You keep defending them based on getting new servers. What the rest of us are saying is they needed to get the servers better setup to handle long queues that they most definitely knew was coming. They even warned us ahead of time that long waits would happen at peak hours. Still, its not acceptable to wait in line only to constantly get kicked out of said line and start over again at the back. SE's mistake was NOT getting new servers, their mistake was not preparing the servers to better handle queues for a large number of players. If everyone could eventually get in, even if that meant waiting over an hour or so, then that would still suck but it wouldn't be as bad as not playing at all - which is the problem we have now at peak hours.

[skyfox]

They had several YEARS of data to predict this issue. This isn't a problem that suddenly sprang into existence in 2021. Get over yourself, white knights.

I bet they didn't predict Blizzard to mess up so badly. Probably more than 30% players on the queue are WoW refugees.

[Kes13a]

I like how you cherry pick my comment and absolutely ignore this part since it destroys your argument...

I know this horse has beaten into glue already, but I'm gonna say it again. They had several YEARS of data to predict this issue. Even without the exodus from WoW this year (2021), it was still clear expanding the server capacity was necessary BEFORE launch, not after as they had planned.

Proving you know nothing of how market prediction works. Just say that. It's easier.

actually, your own comment kind of destroys itself.

according to most generic game data on active players in FFxiv the growth was generally a steady slope until the pandemic, then monthly became spikey since more people were or were not playing per month, but it was still easily averaged along teh same upward slope until August of 2021. I am sure someone of yohe vaunted predicting stature is aware what happened at that time.

the spike was well outside any predictable values prior to that point. since you are the expert in market prediction for player sub numbers, please explain how you would have predicted that during budget meeting, or even player modelling, earlier in the year.

prove how brilliant you are ^^

thank you for you proving that, much appreciated. it will show that you are the expert and are not just talking out your behind.

[LittleImp]

I'm confused why everyone keeps talking about silicon shortage and capacity.. That's hardly the problem driving the frustration from what I've gathered.

It sounds more like a programming oversight leading to people being unfairly removed from the queue, often doubling or tripling their effective wait time.

[Kes13a]

I fully understand that. I also fully understand that any outfit of this size does in fact have access to necessary hardware, both in-house and outside

Most outfits would not actually have a whole server park just laying around. one, technology changes and you dont want millions in useless obsolete tech, two, chances are you outsource the building of the hardware. when you buy, you set a timeline and get a firm cost from the supplier. (plus, you arent buying servers from Walmart...)

my guess is their supplier, because it was a big order, said they could do it, and when it came time to do it, the supply was dried up. either way, thats just the OCE server, not the login server issue.

[Anemic]

I'm confused why everyone keeps talking about silicon shortage and capacity.. That's hardly the problem driving the frustration from what I've gathered.

It sounds more like a programming oversight leading to people being unfairly removed from the queue, often doubling or tripling their effective wait time.

IMO if there was a fix for the errors making you "lose your place in queue"; the complaints would be a fraction of what they are now.

For me, I have no problem waiting in line, but it's when you get further close to seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, only to be hit with an error and then told you are at the back of the line. That seems to be where the big hurt is.

[ChazLandale]

7 hours of trying to log in 30+ 2002 errors. Have not been below 2000 in queue. Good thing it is only a game.

[Lunalepsy]

Karens vs. White Knights!

[Merkhen]

Karens vs. White Knights!

Only a Karen would say that people defending SE are Whiteknights.