Alexander Questline Question

[Iscah]

I'm guessing the first loop was ...

There is no "first loop" in a story like this. No rewriting. There is just the causal loop that has always happened.

There never needs to be a version of events where the Hotgo group successfully summoned Alexander, just one where Mide thinks they did. Alexander is never overwriting time; it is manipulating events to ensure that a particular sequence plays out.