Endwalker Housing Update

[Jojoya]

I'm always wondering about other people's math abilities, when they say "You will have less chances than now"...

At the moment, only small goblet plots have real chances by camping method, as not too many would relocate into those. Every other district is quickly filled by relos, kicking every newcomer with close to 0% chances to get something there - maybe even after 8-10-12-16 hours of camping until a relo appears and grabs it in no time.
Booting that mechanic just spreads the chances into all styles, and not turning Goblet into other-district-ticket for better places. It had it's time with many free plots around, but nowadays it should really taken out.

For lottery, it has to show what comes out. Sure, like often some people get their chances lowered, as they frequently spent their time with camping.
But the casual player might benefit, as a lot of their time (=chances) are already gone by following other activities (work, sleep, other hobbies, FF-related stuff, etc.). And with the little time left often under competition with others player, some maybe acting via bots/scripts? Their chances are already often 2% and even far-far less.

The lottery gets everyone interested onto same level... And might reactivate some people, who already gave up on that topic long ago, so they also regulary apply on plots. That might be a crucial information for Squeenix, what further actions they might take for the future to really solve the problem. It's not helping anyone if they come up with a solution for 5000, and only 500 will take the offer in the end.

Not saying, that disabling relocation and celebrating lottery are the pinnacle of ideas to have around that topic. Better certainly has to come up, sanctuary around the corner or not.

Your math is bad if you think a one in 1000 chance to get something is better than having a one in 30 chance to get that something.

Normal players have won the click wars against the click bots. Look at the story that's been circulating in the past week about the player who won Placard Savage - then turned it into 237 million gil by placing a retainer to sell items to the click-bots that were still standing at the placard.

The only thing the lottery will do is allow players to spend more time doing other things in game instead of spending it camping a placard. It will not improve their chances of getting a house and we'll still be inundated with the same complaints about not being able to get a house. It's always fun to think that you'll be the winner of a lottery but it will never happen for most people.

[SanadaX]

The fact that people who abuse the relocation system as it is immediately leap to assuming people are taking delight in "knowing they just screwed the homeowners over" is pretty telling, my dude. No one wants to hurt the players who have a home, but the relocation system as is, is pretty awful and is actively detrimental towards a fair system that enabled players to get houses they wanted. Instead plots like The Goblet are in a constant state of flux as rich people snap up all of the small plots just so they can swap to the plot they really want as soon as it goes up for sale without having to play fair like everyone else.

Reactions to this change just remind me of the old quote "When you're accustomed to privilege equality feels like oppression." because lmao, home owners aren't being screwed over in any way. You just have to wait in line and play fair like everyone else now, and the fact that so many people are crying furious tears about how they can't just keep cutting in line jumping from house to house while so many other people haven't even had a chance to get one plot yet is absolutely hilarious. Relocation still exists and still functions fine; you just aren't being given special status that lets you act like you're better than everyone else.

If you want to talk about awful you should be talking about the housing system entirely. Sure, people that would relocated onto other plots screwed people over but now you are funneling every player into the worst part of the system. Of course relocators are pissed. Regardless if they want to admit it... Every homeowner is like the meme of the 3 dudes on the balcony looking down on the peons. Funny but true. Now you have all these people who only relocated because it was the only plot up, not in the area they wanted, Now lining up again to relocate?

[Sotaris]

We are going to start see so many complaints when lottery goes live. Mark my word.

[TakumiHarada]

I'm totally FOR getting rid of first-come-first-served system completely because it's too much abused by bots at this point. But considering that so many people don't have a house, I can see the lotteries having an extremely low rate.

After all it's a basic demand & supply problem.
If the dev can't increase the supply because of technical issues, they could do multiple things to increase the effective cost of owning a house. (Increasing the initial costs, introducing house-owning tax, introducing auctioning to let players decide the prices, etc.)

At least people will see a goal (target price), rather than not having the chance at all. Turning it into a lottery system is just going to make people complain about unseen randomness, off the top of my head I think of Bozja's extremely bad duel system, so bad that they immediately introduced notoriety.

[Rathmir]

And thinking that every single spot will have 1000 and more applicants is exact the same "bad math". For now, nobody has real solid numbers, just a lot of emotions - from both sides.
By guess Squeenix also don't has all numbers exactly, as they didn't seems care too much. They just started as the complains and the problems got more solid, maybe nibbling on their reputation.

There always be complains, like with normal lottery.
"Duuuh! I filled so many tickets, why am I no billionarire already???" - "Look, it beeeeeeest way possible, because 1 of million people did it in thaaat extreme, yay!"

For now, we have to live with what's about to come, and still pester Square for more brain storming. And to hope that they will come to right conclusions.

And yes, also knowing enough people who got a plot, ranging from quick shot to several days and weeks of camping. Still, there are endless more better activities to do than camping a virtual wooden plank.

[Divinemights]

And thinking that every single spot will have 1000 and more applicants is exact the same "bad math"..

This has nothing to do with mathematic. This is called forecasting where players is trying to obtain best estimate of future results and the most-likely scenario assumptions.
You can challenge against the idea of each house owner will be potential relocators to participate in this lottery, but you can't accuse this is "bad math" because you too are also forecasting that "not every house owner will be potential relocators.
Yet, the this fact still remains true, instead of being current 1:20 to get a house it will be 1:XX and this number will only be larger; therefore, the chance of you getting a house will be considerably lowered.

This is not a system will have some laughable "bad luck proof" mechanic because it is a limited resource.
Currently it is still remain true that a lot of players will start criticizing this lottery system the same way they criticizing demolish timer (a lot of them were supporters)

[Rathmir]

This has nothing to do with mathematic. This is called forecasting where players is trying to obtain best estimate of future results and the most-likely scenario assumptions.
[...]
Currently it is still remain true that a lot of players will start criticizing this lottery system the same way they criticizing demolish timer (a lot of them were supporters)

At least someone admits, that it's like forecasting weather by throwing bones, taking 10 of them away and tell results from the rest.
Late edit: Sure, goes for both sides, to be fully fair.
Of course, it might be really heavy after the Ishard plots are gone. But as said: Nobody really has 100% solid numbers for now how big the real demand is.
How many people want to relocate, how many new people want a house at all, and so on.

And sure, plenty of people will have their chance lowered, others are not too different with just being passers-by clickers.

For telling that a lot of people will curse the lottery system... for that you don't need to be a medium.
As said: Reloc was fine, but isn't really at the moment. The timer in today's form with that big range is total nonesense.

Lottery might be a way to get the needed numbers, as everyone who's interested in housing might still apply. Then Squaresoft needs to take serious actions, and no half hearted ones like so far (including this discussed one(s) here), if they want to keep up with the ward system.

Wouldn't mind a half-instanced ward system, where everyone can just take their fav. plot, maybe click their neighbours from the plot's pools for their liking. So nobody would give anything about relocators or accounts with multiple houses, and what not seen, at all.

But every possible way to solve the issue costs time and money, and no idea how much of both Square is willing to invest.

Edit: To be honest, my faith with Square and that are not the highest. Sure, they could drop 12 more wards per style again. But give it a few months, and the topic comes up once more. As long as the actual system stays, and the player counts are high, nothing will change for longer.

[Divinemights]

At least someone admits, that it's like forecasting weather by throwing bones, taking 10 of them away and tell results from the rest.
Late edit: Sure, goes for both sides, to be fully fair.

You are just repackaging the same ideas.
This is whole reason why people are "forecasting" because no one has the correct numbers on demand, including SE.
Forecasting is business practices "attempting" to estimate the demand.
Of course you can forecasting differently than us but it certainly doesn't mean you are correct either.

Take a guess, who in this game has most man power and gils available to bid on all open plots once Ishard plots are occupied?
It will never be those large FC and it will always be RMT with army of characters and gil bank.
Japanese side is already expecting RMT to gain control over most of empty plots
I just don't know why there are so many NA is so optimistic about this lottery system at all.

[SanadaX]

I just don't know why there are so many NA is so optimistic about this lottery system at all.

Because it is freshly wrapped donkey nards. Like I was telling the other guy, people feel like they have a real chance! Once you take the wrapping off you realize everyone has been funneled into the worst part of the housing which is "May the odds be ever in your favor" placard clicking. Lottery has it worse because people are going to just drop the money and go back to questing or what have you.. and with the increase of players across every server... Better chances winning the cactpot... Salt mines finna pop.

[Dewslam]

I just don't know why there are so many NA is so optimistic about this lottery system at all.

Honestly everyone I know is only excited about it because it just takes out the hours of manual time investment. No more having to sit there and click at the placard only to lose it to a bot or relocator. Instead, now you can actually play the game and then the lottery will inform you you've lost it to a bot or relocator.