You're exactly right. I really hope Square Enix has some long-term plan about the MSQ system. God knows how anyone will convince a new player to go through 3 months of story just to get to play with their friend in 9.x....It needs to happen sooner rather than later. I have given enough pep talks to new players getting through ARR. It's rough.
The common story you hear is "Yeah, I was so burned out after finishing ARR that I quit. I eventually came back, and was hooked!" Except I don't think that golden zone is as golden as it used to be. HW, SB, and now ShB will be obstacles to people getting to the content everyone is talking about. HW, as good as the story may be, is not really any less of a marathon grind as the post-ARR patch contents.
It's the double edged sword with having an MSQ mandatory game. As the expansions pile up, the gap widens between new players and where everyone else is. We're all current players, and I can assume we're all caught up to date on the MSQ. A new patch isn't going to feel like anything, and we welcome it! Now, think of leveling an alt through the entirety of the MSQ from ARR to this current patch. Most people are going to say no. It's kind of brilliant when you think about it, because it's the ultimate sunk cost trap: time. However, it will become increasingly difficult to convince people to carry on.
FFXIV will become a game of dedicated vets and filled with a niche audience who want to play for the story, mostly alone. I think SE would do well to not just start with ARR, but take consideration of all past content when looking to make the MSQ more approachable to a new player. No, story skips aren't an option and are actually insulting to have in a cash shop.
In fact, I can think of a lot of quests that are little more than "Go here to see x person nod, and send you here to see y person nod, to go here and see z person make a surprised face" that could be cut entirely without losing a single story beat.
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