Ruby Dragon not biting

[LegendWait]

I tend to calculate for a 99.9% success chance, though the math is more anoying then just running through a number of catch amounts. 350 attempts give or take, (as I'm too tired, too HOT) to do the math. Given what, 3 per window? 120 windows? Two weeks between each window?

If I remember my math :

R = 1 - ((1 - p) ^ i)

at 2% (p) the probability to catch it over each iteration (i) so for R => 0.99, I think you need 232 iterations or kuers casts


1 - ((1 - 0.02) ^ 232)) = 0.99078

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not a math expert