Based on the majority of the games out there.
edit: also,
this. Water being opposite of Fire makes more sense than Wind anyway.
They might have had different rules, but base element relationships were never twisted as they are in FFXIV - I'd remember that.
I don't care if it was fire <-> ice | lightning <-> water or fire -> ice -> lightning -> water -> fire
But going wind -> fire is ridiculous. Speaking of realism: why do you think we fear the wind when there are fires around?
No, it won't. I played this game since alpha and I still have to keep the elemental wheel chart open. They tried to be different for the sake of being different, and you see where it got them. They're fixing the things with 2.0, so they might as well fix this too.