RHGesus

[SeedsOfChange]

Okay, I am noticing a huge problem in the RNG in this game. I boost my % to 40-60 on HQ gathers, I get one every 5 nodes (that's four gathers each node) on 25% chance I get one every 6-10 nodes.
Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10. now someone else is there, giving up.
I have noe decided that any crafting mat that requires RNGesus to smile on me is on my blacklist. I will just out level it and ignore it.

[Draken]

It’s a percentage of each try, not total.

If you do 10 nodes, your not gonna get 4 HQ, but you will get close to 400 HQ if you do a but short term will seem very broken high or low.

[Rhus]

If it ain’t 100 consider it 0.

It’s 25% per hit so there’s still a 75% chance you’ll get nq each times. Just keep using skills, refresh with cordials if gathering. Skills like deep vigor grant 100% hq after chain 4. So extra hit nodes are good for that combined with qty increase you could get a guaranteed 3 from that for 100gp from a +2 hit node.

But rng will rng. Today I had a node 35% hq (with a 10 buff skill) I got all 4 hits hq. Next node had +60 hq. Only 1 hit of the 4 dropped hq. Lol

[SeedsOfChange]

It seems that every game for the last 25 years buys the same RNG library, the all suck exactly the same. As Rhus said, <100 = 0. I am just annoyed that the only source of wool is 100% failure for me. I have killed tons of these sheep and still gotten exactly zero drops. </grumble>

[Awha]

RNG you always have a chance to roll low. Expect it become one with it and then raise above it. You got this.

[Shibi]

Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10.

10 is not enough, by any means. You will normally need to kill about 100 goats for enough of their horns for glue, or 100 sheep for their wool, or 100 Diremites for the silk web, or 100 Tigers for their skins, or 100 Gyukis for their skins and on it goes.

What you might find very useful is to get your retainers up to level on quick exploration ventures, then send them out to get the materials for you. It will take about 2 weeks for the leveling, then you gear them, and they will bring back 10 or so wools every 2 hours. With 2 retainers over 8 hours you can get around 80 of the thing.

[Rongway]

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

[MagicAura]

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

The amount of times I have repeated those words in various chats and discussions is mind-boggling. Randomness and confirmation bias, eh? Maybe we have too high expectations.

[Liam_Harper]

This is exactly how rng works.

Random does not mean you get a predictable pattern across a small sample size. Nor does it mean 97% is guaranteed to succeed or 1% is guaranteed to fail. It means random. You can predict the most likely outcome over time, but it's never guaranteed. You could get nothing from a 50% chance ten times in a row or succeed a 10% chance ten times in a row.

[MagicAura]

This is exactly how rng works.

Random does not mean you get a predictable pattern across a small sample size. Nor does it mean 97% is guaranteed to succeed or 1% is guaranteed to fail. It means random. You can predict the most likely outcome over time, but it's never guaranteed. You could get nothing from a 50% chance ten times in a row or succeed a 10% chance ten times in a row.

And the only way to notice those is to gather a lot more than 10. Way more. The larger the sample, the closer it will get to the specified percentages. And by large I mean very large. In my time gathering various things, I've seen all the things Liam mentions and more. My advice? Don't take the percentage as gospel, be patient, be prepared to spend some time gathering. As simple as that.