RHGesus

[SeedsOfChange]

Okay, I am noticing a huge problem in the RNG in this game. I boost my % to 40-60 on HQ gathers, I get one every 5 nodes (that's four gathers each node) on 25% chance I get one every 6-10 nodes.
Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10. now someone else is there, giving up.
I have noe decided that any crafting mat that requires RNGesus to smile on me is on my blacklist. I will just out level it and ignore it.

[Draken]

It’s a percentage of each try, not total.

If you do 10 nodes, your not gonna get 4 HQ, but you will get close to 400 HQ if you do a but short term will seem very broken high or low.

[Rhus]

If it ain’t 100 consider it 0.

It’s 25% per hit so there’s still a 75% chance you’ll get nq each times. Just keep using skills, refresh with cordials if gathering. Skills like deep vigor grant 100% hq after chain 4. So extra hit nodes are good for that combined with qty increase you could get a guaranteed 3 from that for 100gp from a +2 hit node.

But rng will rng. Today I had a node 35% hq (with a 10 buff skill) I got all 4 hits hq. Next node had +60 hq. Only 1 hit of the 4 dropped hq. Lol

[SeedsOfChange]

It seems that every game for the last 25 years buys the same RNG library, the all suck exactly the same. As Rhus said, <100 = 0. I am just annoyed that the only source of wool is 100% failure for me. I have killed tons of these sheep and still gotten exactly zero drops. </grumble>

[Penthea]

It seems that every game for the last 25 years buys the same RNG library, the all suck exactly the same. As Rhus said, <100 = 0. I am just annoyed that the only source of wool is 100% failure for me. I have killed tons of these sheep and still gotten exactly zero drops. </grumble>

The best way to get HQ animal parts is to use retainers. You can send them on ventures to fetch specific animal parts provided they're high enough lvl for what you want. The higher lvl the retainer is and the better their gear is, the higher chance they have of bringing back HQ items. They will always bring back 10 of the item, but how many of those are HQ depends on luck, your retainer's lvl and their gear.

Btw only combat class retainers can fetch animal parts. Gatherer (miner, botanist, fisher) retainers cannot fetch them, but they can fetch other items relating to their gathering class.

[Awha]

RNG you always have a chance to roll low. Expect it become one with it and then raise above it. You got this.

[Shibi]

Trying to get wool today, seems to be one place to get it, not one sheep has dropped anything. I have killed 10.

10 is not enough, by any means. You will normally need to kill about 100 goats for enough of their horns for glue, or 100 sheep for their wool, or 100 Diremites for the silk web, or 100 Tigers for their skins, or 100 Gyukis for their skins and on it goes.

What you might find very useful is to get your retainers up to level on quick exploration ventures, then send them out to get the materials for you. It will take about 2 weeks for the leveling, then you gear them, and they will bring back 10 or so wools every 2 hours. With 2 retainers over 8 hours you can get around 80 of the thing.

[Rongway]

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

[MagicAura]

Oh boy, our quarterly "I don't know how randomness works" thread.

If it's not 100% or 0%, there are no guarantees. There's a possibility you will succeed anywhere from 0 out of x to x out of x times, whether the probability is 0.01% or 99.99%.

No, the pseudorandom number generator isn't broken because you keep failing on 95% or succeeding on 5%.

No, most games aren't using critically flawed pseudorandom number generators.

You just don't understand randomness and confirmation bias.

The amount of times I have repeated those words in various chats and discussions is mind-boggling. Randomness and confirmation bias, eh? Maybe we have too high expectations.

[SeedsOfChange]

I understand randomness just fine, that's the thing, by definition ALL pseudorandom number generators are flawed, most in games are critically flawed. It's been tested.
Confirmation bias works both ways. The trick is to count, not "feel" how you are doing.
It's easier to check with gathering nodes, you get an actual % and you just count how many you get.
2 times I was collecting HQ stuff from trees or bushes, with ~25% chance for HQ, by the I got 10, I had 150 of the NQ. Both times.
I don't know what the drop rate for stuff off "sheep" is, but 6-7 runs through the little flock outside town has yielded exactly zero drop of any kind.
...Okay, just looked on a site that says Ornery Karakul is supposed to drop 40% for fleece and a leather at a lower rate.
I know fanbois hate criticism, of any kind, of their fixation, but I assumed most grownups understood that game RNG is always bad, sometimes worse than others. WoW and EQ were literally famous for it.
It isn't random, the more "streakyness" a pseudorandom algorithm, the worse it feels to those getting bad rolls.
People actually study this kind of thing, write papers on it. I don't think any particular game has been mentioned, but I haven't read that stuff in a few years.

I was not really looking for an in depth discussion of probability, I was just bitter about yet another bar to progressing crafting by making me harvest from an extremely small population of critters that never drop anything. Possibly getting a tip on how to proceed, since killing doesn't seem to work... may have to look into using a retainer for that.