I think the problem is, as people are saying, that you're blowing this way out of proportion. Also you're quoting a Yoshida post from 2013. Are you saying literally nothing has improved in seven and a half years? You can say "ask the director" but you probably need to provide something a little more currently relevant.

While I can't speak for the 2.0 launch or HW launch - I joined mid-HW, so I won't speak for times I wasn't present - both SB and ShB have generally been well handled. Congestion has never been an issue short of the first bursts at the very beginning of an expansion, and even then the queues have never been terrible. I can't quote anything more than 5-10 minutes, if that at either launch expansion, and only in the first few days of both early expansion and the full launch. As people have stated, the congestion issue in SB was poor timing on a large number of instances eating up the server space all at once - Raubahn, Pipin shortly after, and RDM and SAM. ShB had none of this - I remember getting in relatively quickly, and having no disconnections despite being there on launch, fantasiaing my Hrothgar which required a logout and relog through the queue, etc. The split paths, the delay of solo instances to leave the servers a bit less taxed, etc was all handled very well, and though there were queue lines, it was still not nearly as bad as your doomsaying seems to predict. Naturally it is personal anecdote so I won't claim it as a blanket fact, but I do feel that your view is a little pessimistic.

To answer your question - I don't expect it to be bad. ShB figured out what went wrong in SB, and then they're going to be moving forward on that. Will there be bursts of congestion in the first week or so? For sure, lots of returnees and people newly enticed to the game. That's going to happen with any new expansion, you're going to have full worlds, you're going to have people jumping in to do the new content. By the end of the first week, people will space out and congestion will die down.