Let base be the potency of an attack.
Let rate be the probability of an attack critting.
Let multiplier be the potency multiplier for an attack that crits.
Let the expected potency of an attack be calculated using the formula
expected = rate*base*multiplier + (1-rate)*base
expected = base*(rate*multiplier + 1 - rate)
The expected potency of one attack with potency pot is equal to the total expected potency of three attacks with potency pot/3.
Direct proof:
Substituting the potency of one large attack, base = pot
expected_large = pot*(rate*multiplier + 1 - rate)
Substituting the potency of one small attack, base = pot/3
expected_small = pot/3*(rate*multiplier + 1 - rate)
Considering three small potency attacks, each with potency pot/3
expected_3small = 3*expected_small
expected_3small = 3*pot/3*(rate*multiplier+1-rate)
expected_3small = pot*(rate*multiplier + 1 - rate)
The expected potency of one attack with potency pot is equal to the total expected potency of three attacks with potency pot/3.
QED
A similar proof can be given for direct hits, and the two can be combined into a proof that accounts for both critical and direct hits.



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