Theory: Time-based Diminishing Returns on Primal drops?

[REDace0]

I've observed an extremely wide variation in the ratio of wins against Ifrit to weapon drops, as reported by my fellow forum-goers. This has led me to propose the following theory.

Drop rates for primal battles decrease as wins increase in a fixed time frame.

For example, if you have 5 wins on Ifrit Monday, 7 on Tuesday, 3 on Wednesday, it may be expected that you have roughly the same chance of obtaining a weapon or token drop on any of those days, despite the varying number of wins. In fact, spreading these 15 wins out to 3 a day would actually increase your chances of drops by a factor of 2/3.

I propose this based on the anecdotal evidence that I see players tackling primals over and over for a free day or two and complaining about few drops, whereas I, though I'm 7/7 on Ifrit with something like 80 wins, spread mine out over a long period of time, never getting more than 5 wins in a day.

I did not collect any hard data during these runs, but I have only beaten Moggle Mog three times with no drops, so I will definitely begin tracking those attempts and, if necessary, attempts against Garuda. It's also worth mentioning that this may apply to coffers and non-boss dungeon chests as well, so data there would be useful. In the interest of testing this theory sooner, I'd appreciate posts from the community with hard data, or even just anecdotes. I'll make an effort to tabulate whatever data I get, including my own, and offer my conclusion.

Thanks in advance and (Good luck!) on your primal fights!

[StateAlchemist]

I dont think i ever did more then 3-4 wins a day and it took me 70~ wins to see my first weapon drop.

[Issachar]

I believe it's more luck-of-the-draw than overcomplicated theorum. From my own personal experience, I did Moogle and Ifrit roughly the same amount of runs per party, and moogle took 1/6th of the time to complete than Ifrit, whereas I've seen people in the opposite situations.

[Asiaine]

Direction, time of day, and Lucky Egg must be equipped.

[Wevlum]

Implying any thought went into this terrible system. Yes I'm bitter x.x

[Viritess]

As cool as it is to get the weapon drop from the boss. with the armory system the way it is and folks getting say x amount of swords in a row before they ever see say the Lance they actually want i really wonder if there is an optimal system.

So i'll throw my suggestion out there!

Instead of the full weapon being dropped, drop a universal base item, lets call it Ifrit's Molten Horn.

So you beat down Ifrit, and the Molten horn drops and you get it. Awesome, now what?

Behind Ifrit theres some sort of ather filled molten pool. take the Molten Hron to the pool, and choose your desired weapon. Say you want a lance. Horn plus pool equals the lance you chose.
(you now have a system where folks are still going for a drop rate. but atleast they can be rewarded the first time with the weapon they really wanted!)

Now as an optional part of this system. Have drop rate "success" measure per person. For every Molten Horn you've gotten your drop rate chance lowers by a perdetermined percentage. (To a set minimum. dont want folks ending up with a 0.0000001 drop rate. that would be aweful)

If we throw out a number say No horns recived and transformed = 30% you could take 3% off your chance. so by the time your going for the 7th weapon (currently 7 DOW/DOM classes) your at round 9% chance. (Also with being able to make materia out of Moogle and ifrit items might have to stick with Horns recived with a set minimum drop rate)

What this accomplishes: Folks who are only running Ifrit for 1 class'es weapon don't have to spend as many runs to get it as those who want all 7. But it also means you have to descide which you want most and least and how many times your willing to run for how many Classes.

Depending on the starting % (no weapons) and the ending percentage (6 weapons?) owned you might be able to drop the token system and not have to worry about 2 Drop rates to balance.

This way you get more of a Scaled reward system by how many runs you want to do vs how many weapons you want.

Those who want all will run it more. those who want one or two for their favorite classes can run a bit less. And everyone atleast gets the one they wanted in the first place!

Honestly, we all have a favorite class we want our best stuff for. would be nice to choose on the spot instead of Your buddy wants a sword, you want a lance, and you get a sword you didnt want. now your semi disappointed and so is your buddy. that isnt the feeling anyone should have when you take down a big bad boss.

What you want after downing any big boss is either "Darn maybe next time" or " Yes i got (Can get) something i always wanted!"

Thats how i feel. Let us make smart choices with a base reward we can change into what we REALLY went there for in the first place! (Not to mention if folks get a reward they wanted i belive they would be more likely to run it again with some other people, because they will remember a more positive or neutral feeling as apposed to varied negative feelings and then a positive one here and there.