The simple truth is tri disaster is just way too much potency saved up into one simple to utilize move, thus making it one of the easiest targets, (and in fact even on these forums most talked about targets) for a nerf. If the nerf is just to potency then it wont truly change the meta rotation in the slightest, because just as you pointed out above the meta method is the 3 time per two minute method, and that will then become just the de-facto standard method if it has less potency.

There is also more rotational analysis that needs to be accounted for on that option 2, but im not interested in getting into that. regardless the way I see it if SMN is gonna get a nerf thats a good spot for it.