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  1. #16
    Player
    Iscah's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    14,065
    Character
    Aurelie Moonsong
    World
    Bismarck
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Mhaeric View Post
    You must have missed the part where I explained how it's possible to win all 3 coffers and talked about how that actually plays out in reality. It was in the post with the table in it if you want to take a gander. If you don't, it boils down to me conceding the 7/8 value as being a more realistic one.
    You said (and I quoted) that 7/8 is "a good enough approximation". It's not an approximation, it's the exact output of the calculation of the more realistic scenario and it leads back to the logic: three people in that raid are going to win a chest.

    It doesn't matter what the exact rolled numbers were. It doesn't matter what your chances are of winning chest #2 once you have rolled a 93 and you're waiting to find out if anyone got higher. Those momentary chances are going to fluctuate but they don't matter in the end.

    And the fact that someone technically can be eligible for all three rolls by deliberately deleting each chest as they win it is irrelevant on an average run. There would have to be someone out to do it and they'd have to be the winner of every roll for it to make even a minor difference.
    (1)
    Last edited by Iscah; 07-28-2020 at 09:20 PM.