Quote Originally Posted by Mhaeric View Post
The rolls are independent so they technically can't be lumped together like that. I will definitely grant you that it's reliant on a person who wins deleting their winning coffer before rolling on the next one so that's an unlikely scenario and can be discounted from the probability calculation but it would technically be a (23/24)^3 chance to fail for one run. 7/8 is a good enough approximation assuming all players rolled and didn't delete their coffers.
Thinking this all over... the thing is, you can do all this complex maths about your chances and how three separate rolls is different to one roll with three winners and your chances once you've rolled your number and you're waiting to see what everyone else got... but at the end of the day, 24 people walk into the raid and three come out with a coffer. Therefore you have a 1-in-8 chance that you will be one of them.

Also, on the maths side of things - you said "(23/24)^3" (or about 88%) are your chances of not-winning if everyone can roll on each chest.

But because they can't, the competition for the second one is 22/23 and the third is 21/22... and (23/24)x(22/23)x(21/22)=0.875 exactly.

So. Logic first and the maths backs it up.