Please do something about it already.

[Stepjam]

I always felt like you needed like a 95 or higher to be "sure" you'll get something in alliance raid, but it's really less than 10% chance with a 90? I'm not statistician so I believe you, but that seems a bit hard to believe, even with 24 people rolling. There's 89 numbers below 90, so it seems weird that multiple people always seem to roll 90+

[Mhaeric]

I always felt like you needed like a 95 or higher to be "sure" you'll get something in alliance raid, but it's really less than 10% chance with a 90? I'm not statistician so I believe you, but that seems a bit hard to believe, even with 24 people rolling. There's 89 numbers below 90, so it seems weird that multiple people always seem to roll 90+

The thing you have to take into account is that just one of those people needs to roll higher than 90 for you to lose. The chance of at least one roll being 91-99 out of 23 rolls goes up significantly compared to just a single roll being 91-99.

In order to win you every other player would have to roll from 1-89. That chance is (89/99)^23 which is about 8.6% of winning. I'm not sure what happens if two players tie for the highest roll, but that appears to be factored into the calculation from the table in my previous post since they have the chance of winning listed at 8.0% which is presumably from that possibility where someone else rolls a 90 and they're the ones who get it instead of you.

It's similar type of paradox as the birthday paradox where there's a roughly 70% chance that any 2 people out of a random 30 people will share the same birthday. It seems like that be should be a significantly smaller chance since there's 365 possible days and each person is being compared against only 29 other people, but because any pairing can be a match there's more comparisons being made than there are days in a year.