Calamities explained

[Crushnight]

Having done a small amount of project management myself, this is the most unbelievable part of the universe of XIV. That a project could be so well organized that the only failures were brought about by incomplete information on the first attempt, and direct intervention on the most recent, and the other 7 all happened perfectly.

I don't think that all attempts happened perfectly but those 7 did , I believe the Ascians made more attempts than the successful calamities and fail void shows, my basis for this is Hydelyan tends to not make WoLs until she senses Ascian involvement in some way or another great threat to her like Ultima. Why would she need to she is currently in charge and making WoLs is giving up some of her power, to do that when there is no threat seems pointless. The WoLs myth has existed for a very long time, earliest I believe we know is the tailend of the Allagan Empire, Allagan Empire existed for a very long time as well, suspiciously long compared, they were around long enough to undergo cultural collapse, I think Emet-Selch when he created the Allagan Empire didn't intend for it to last as long as it did initially (parallels to Garlean Empire is pretty apparent and he wanted a civil war to happen by not naming an heir) but something went wrong either Source side, or shard side where their plans were put on hold until both were ready.

It wouldn't be a stretch to think past WoLs succeeded occasionally in preventing a Calamity either Source or Shard weren't ready, but never destroying the root cause that is the Ascians, so Ascians can just come back with plan B-Z as and when they want, heck they were doing just that with us with ARR-ShB.

The question I want to pose is why have they seemingly sped up their plans so much since the 7th Calamity? Could the 8th Calamity really be all that is needed for Zodiark to get enough power to dethrone Hydelyan, if so it would explain their haste for it.

[MirronTulaxia]

The urgency doesn’t make any sense to me either. If anything if this is the last one needed they should be more careful, not less. They keep losing members but don’t seem to see that as a concern. It just all seems strange. Without any time limit on their end they really shouldn’t be moving so rashly.

[Ilenya]

The question I want to pose is why have they seemingly sped up their plans so much since the 7th Calamity? Could the 8th Calamity really be all that is needed for Zodiark to get enough power to dethrone Hydelyan, if so it would explain their haste for it.

I know this is a tad late and may have been pointed out, but I feel like the Ascian's haste isn't so much "We're having issues, we need to hurry" and more "Oh hey, we don't need to wait for everything to rebuild this time, sweet!"

[SnowVix]

I think they're finally feeling threatened. It was mentioned that Lahabrea's repeat body hopping had led him to insanity, and I have to wonder if perhaps Elidibus might be feeling the onset of that, too. Not to mention that there's now a Warrior of Light/Darkness who has proven capable of killing multiple Ascians (2 in the MSQ plus the Ascians of the Chalice in SMN 60). They accidentally started a war that threatened them, so now they're trying to move the timetable up so they don't lose everything.

[Naria]

I think they're finally feeling threatened. It was mentioned that Lahabrea's repeat body hopping had led him to insanity, and I have to wonder if perhaps Elidibus might be feeling the onset of that, too. Not to mention that there's now a Warrior of Light/Darkness who has proven capable of killing multiple Ascians (2 in the MSQ plus the Ascians of the Chalice in SMN 60). They accidentally started a war that threatened them, so now they're trying to move the timetable up so they don't lose everything.

I'm being pedantic here but technically the WoL only killed Emet-Selch. Lahabrea was killed by Thordan (although you could argue the WoL helped) . Nabriales and Igeyorhm and the various suits Acians should all be shards/reflections that were raised up to their posts, and could be replaced the same way. We've seen this happen with Emmerololth I believe, since Emmerololth died in 5.0 at the Isle of Val but we see a full set of overlords later on in the ARR patch series.

I do wonder how the process of creating an Asican from a reflection works. Is is something that Elidibus can do himself? Or does it take all three of the unsundered convocation members to do so? If he can't do it on his own, that would explain the added sense of urgency after Heavensward and his switch in attitude towards the WoL.

[Vyrerus]

I'm being pedantic here

Just because an Ascian post could be refilled, doesn't mean that an Ascian wasn't killed. The WoL has killed three Ascians in the MSQ, and is partially responsible for Lahabrea's death, since he weakened him to such an extent that he was powerless to resist Thordan. More Ascians added to the belt loop if you do the SMN line, as already said.

As for how folk are raised to the station, I imagine it would involve selecting a suitable, powerful individual with The Echo, and then bringing them before Elidibus so they may be tempered by Zodiark or bestowed the knowledge and power that befits their station.

[MrThinker]

Just because an Ascian post could be refilled, doesn't mean that an Ascian wasn't killed. The WoL has killed three Ascians in the MSQ, and is partially responsible for Lahabrea's death, since he weakened him to such an extent that he was powerless to resist Thordan. More Ascians added to the belt loop if you do the SMN line, as already said.

As for how folk are raised to the station, I imagine it would involve selecting a suitable, powerful individual with The Echo, and then bringing them before Elidibus so they may be tempered by Zodiark or bestowed the knowledge and power that befits their station.

When it came to raising the shards of the original members, i believe something was said about restoring their memories as convocation members.

[Naria]

Just because an Ascian post could be refilled, doesn't mean that an Ascian wasn't killed. The WoL has killed three Ascians in the MSQ, and is partially responsible for Lahabrea's death, since he weakened him to such an extent that he was powerless to resist Thordan. More Ascians added to the belt loop if you do the SMN line, as already said.

As for how folk are raised to the station, I imagine it would involve selecting a suitable, powerful individual with The Echo, and then bringing them before Elidibus so they may be tempered by Zodiark or bestowed the knowledge and power that befits their station.

I suppose the disagreement is a matter of semantics. I don't view any shard's destruction as the same as the death of that Ascian. True death or destruction, I mean. Even if that shard is completely destroyed, the rest of that soul is still intact and it has been at best been further maimed (unless that was the very last shard). Unless destroying one shard destroys them all (maybe it does?) then only that particular aspect/shard of the Asican is gone. I mean say Ardbert's shard was killed via a blade of light, unless that act killed the player character and the other 5 shards as well, the Ascian/Amaurotine soul that they originally were would still be existent.

Edit:
If destroying one shard destroys them all, however, you'd think that the Ascian's would have weaponized that in their own favor against Warriors of Light. Hmm this is getting into a bunch of metaphysics that the game hasn't really explained yet.

[Vyrerus]

I suppose the disagreement is a matter of semantics. I don't view any shard's destruction as the same as the death of that Ascian. True death or destruction, I mean. Even if that shard is completely destroyed, the rest of that soul is still intact and it has been at best been further maimed (unless that was the very last shard). Unless destroying one shard destroys them all (maybe it does?) then only that particular aspect/shard of the Asican is gone. I mean say Ardbert's shard was killed via a blade of light, unless that act killed the player character and the other 5 shards as well, the Ascian/Amaurotine soul that they originally were would still be existent.

Edit:
If destroying one shard destroys them all, however, you'd think that the Ascian's would have weaponized that in their own favor against Warriors of Light. Hmm this is getting into a bunch of metaphysics that the game hasn't really explained yet.

When we kill Nabriales, we do not know which shard he hails from, just that he is not of The Source. He alludes to the fact that the shard based Ascians could not come to The Source prior to us losing our Blessing of Light. This implies that they had no Source counterpart for the unsundered to raise up, meaning that all that or most of what was left of their original soul was with their shard body. Of course, nothing is certain, because this idea that all souls are split across the 14 worlds just in different bodies with different minds is so relatively new. I often wonder if they remember or review their old plot points as they wrote Shadowbringers.

Of course, we are shown black masked Ascians on The Source which raises many questions. Though it's probably easily answered as nobodies who were raised to basically be Ascian servants/henchmen. I suspect that the Convocation shard members are chosen and raised up from shards that constitute the majority of the soul in question, for in my mind, it is possible that the souls were sundered unevenly. For example, perhaps no portion of certain souls reside on the 3rd, 4th, or 5th shard, but there are soul portions on every other shard, with those 3 missing ones all being constituted on one of the other shards or The Source.

[HakkyounoTenshi]

I think they're finally feeling threatened.

There is a good point to the above statement. As cliche as it sounds, the game has changed and now Elidibus and the other Ascians are having trouble keeping a hold on the strings and may have lost control completely.

Two of the three Unbroken have been killed (Lahabrea and Emet-Selch) and they might not be replaceable because unlike the Broken Ascians, they haven't existed as shards.

The current WoL is fully capable of killing Ascians, but (possibly) more important is the fact that the WoL is the reincarnation of an Ascian, and has fused with Ardbert who was the WoL's counterpart AND another shard of the Ascian soul. We don't know how that changes the WoL (if it changes things at all). And said soul is implied to be the 14th and final Ascian Convocation member (the Ascian Order trying to bring about rejoinings are the other 13) who did not support the creation of Zodiak and refused to aid in the summoning.

And then there's Zenos...who's a loose cannon with an incredibly strong (and STABLE) artificial Echo, Ascian powers, and his own agenda.

Elidibus flat out says he can't predict where things are going and implies that for right now, he's just hanging on for the ride.