It can happen with no other programs on the main task bar open. Here's a list of stuff that's the mini icons at the corner of the task bar. They're basically always active from when I turn on my pc.

Telegram
AVG antivirus free
Windows Security
NVIDIA Settings
Logitech Gaming Software 8.91.48
Intel Rapid Storage Technology
SteelSeries Engine 3
Bluetooth Devices (I don't have any BT devices connected to this computer)
Synaptics Pointing Device

And as far as any update that coincided with the crash starting to occur, I don't remember it happening in Heavensward or 3.X patches (I was still new to the game at this point), so I'm fairly certain it started happening in patch 4.0 or 4.1. I know it was about 2.5 years ago at this point but I don't remember doing anything significant pc update wise around then, just normal regular windows updates. It was so uncommon back then that I didn't think about it being/becoming a chronic problem.