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[Iscah]

On the discussion regarding arson as the cause of fires (or not), ABC posted an article going into that in more depth.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-...cause/11855022

Particularly relevant to previous discussion:

This week, a NSW Police media release revealed 24 people had been charged over deliberately-lit bushfires this season.

However, the majority of suspected arson relates to small grass fires and rubbish bins set alight, which have inflicted negligible damage and burnt a tiny area compared with fires sparked by lightning.

It seems a bit odd how they're using "deliberately-lit bushfires" then saying the majority of them are grass fires, but maybe there's something in the exactly legal terminology or something.

Anyway, the core point is:

Only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson

...and even then, the cause is still a separate issue to what drives the fire once lit.

Also, hazard reduction burns are not a straightforward answer - and our changing climate conditions are making it harder to find the right weather to conduct them.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-...ainer/11853366

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EDIT: a few extra links without waking up the thread again.

The Bureau of Meteorology's review of 2019's weather - floods, snow where we don't usually get it, and the driest year on record for an alarmingly large section of the national map:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...remes/11852500

And another fact checker on the arson claims, which goes into more detail about what term legally means and where the numbers are coming from. (The Coalition/Liberals/Nationals are, despite the name, our conservative government.)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...risis/11865724

This also gives a solid explanation for the origins of the "almost 200" claimed statistic.

According to a January 6 statement released by NSW Police, since November 2019, legal action ranging from cautions through to criminal charges had been taken against 183 people in relation to bushfires.

However, it is wrong to suggest, as some people have done, that this figure relates solely to bushfire arson.

The vast bulk of this action related to other offences such as failing to comply with fire bans and the discarding of lit cigarettes and matches.

Of the 183 people who face legal action in NSW, only 24 (representing 13 per cent of the total) were charged with deliberately lighting bushfires.

A further 53 people (29 per cent of the total) faced charges or a caution for failing to comply with a total fire ban; 47 (26 per cent) faced charges or were cautioned for throwing away a lit cigarette or match on land.

It also makes the interesting point that fires started by lightning may occur in remote and inaccessible places which makes fighting them more difficult, while deliberately-lit fires will be closer to civilisation.