Quote Originally Posted by Melichoir View Post
2018 rainfall appears to been about average based on the graph data provided on the BOM website (at a glance admittedly). 2019 has been substantially lower, but this offset is a problem because it is an outlier in comparison to all the other data. If it's strictly a global warming issue, you should see there being an overall trend in lack of rainfall, much like you do see a trend in average temperature rises. In fact that graph for annual rainfall seems to suggest a gradual increase in rainfall. This is also a bit weird considering northern parts of Queensland had above average rainfall earlier in the year, and these are areas that are on fire currently. Also, typically the areas which are currently on fire are also areas that on average see the most rainfall, with far less rainfall hitting the interior. So with an average increase in rainfall over time nationally, a year with a severe offset in rainfall compared to past years, and zones that are suffering a lot of fire damage are areas with typically higher rainfall activity, Im not keen to chalk this up to it simply being a matter of only being global warming. At least not in the sense of "Everything is hotter and drier than before" as, again, Northern Queensland received above average rainfall and its also a fire zone currently. Ill concede that 2019 was extra dry overall, but I dont think thats painting an accurate picture unless Im missing something from the data provided.

If you also check out there decadal and multi decadal map regarding rainfall, it tends to show that theres more rainfall overtime, or rather rain is hitting more of the country than before when you look at it over a 100 year period. Im not saying there is no global warming, just again, that Im not keen on saying it's only global warming that the current situation is happening and nothing else is worth considering.
North Queensland, as well as most of the northern parts of Australia sits above the tropic of Capricorn so they don't get normal seasons, they get a wet season and a dry season with the wet corresponding with the rest of Australia's Summer and the dry corresponding with the rest of Australia's Winter. It's the part of the country that gets hit by cyclones and monsoons so that explains the bigger amount of rainfall there.

The nastiest bushfires currently burning typically fall within the regions on the map that had very much above average temperatures and very much below average rainfall. Good examples are the ones in NSW, Victoria, SA and southern Queensland.

I'm not accusing you of saying global warming isn't an issue though, just wanted to point out that the worst effected areas had a really rough time in 2019 regarding temperature and dryness.