WTH going on with melds?

[AndreD69]

I just went through 160 LV VII materia to slot the 4th on 1 TOOL and none took. Did SE screw up the script from 7% chance to 0% chance? They may as well have. That's days & hrs wasted from grinding mats that i may as well have flushed down the toilet.

Sorry wrong place and i cannot delete it

[VirusOnline]

I hope I can explain this mathematically for you, if it helps.

The equation of approximate probability of have at least one successful melding attempt with a 7% chance is equal to 1 - (1-p)^x, where 1-p is your odds of failure and x is your number of attempts.
Let's ask ourselves how many times must we attempt a meld in order to guarantee that one successful overmeld ? Our equation becomes 1 - (1 - .07)^x = .99. Now we need to find x, or the number of times needed to meld to guarantee a 99% chance of an overmeld within x number of tries. Reorder our equation to get .01 = .93^x reorder again to x = ln(.01)/ln(.93).

x = 63.56.

This means that you have a 99.00% chance of a successful overmeld within ~64 tries.

Now you said you tried 160 times. You had a chance of at least 1 chance of a successful overmeld of 99.99%, but not quite 100% chance. And as we know, if it's not 100%, then nothing is guaranteed in the world of crafting.

[Valkyrie_Lenneth]

You have a 7% chance to meld. 7% no matter how many tries is still 7%.

Its rng at its finest.

[Omymy]

You had never meld a crafter set dontcha.

[Deceptus]

Meld frustration does exist and it sucks.

Personally I'd advocate for a trait or if the system would add 1% chance for each failed meld

[Bonbori]

Welcome to FF14 RNG where anything under 100% might as well be 50% and any lower than that is subject to this game's super-advanced mind-reading Desire Sensor AI that has learned to simulate sadism and then perfected it beyond even human capacity.

Nobody believes me but I KNOW.

[Tristann]

So you are my counterpart for inserting 2 5%er on the first try. Thank you for your sacrifice.

[LalaRu]

After I got to the dark crafting side of XIV, the first thing I learned is when you have 87% success rate, you are in the 13% side.

[Frizze]

You were trying something with a 93% chance of failure, and you failed a bunch of times. Like, im sorry it was an extra long string of failure, but thats just life sometimes. And RNG. Life and RNG.

[Arg0n]

welcome to the rng world of ff14

Few days ago i needed 12 tries to overmeld an item with 58% Chance.
I know it was a cheap materia, but to fail 11 times with a 58% chance... *facepalm

And thats why i never overmeld to max stats. it's just not worth