Nier raid 2b outfit rant.

[HyoMinPark]

I don’t think that’s even the case since we have to roll a number. I’m no numbers expert though, I don’t think in a rolling system that it’s ever 1:24 chance of winning.

The way I think of the chances are as follows:

Since there’s 3 coffers and 24 individuals (and individuals that have won the coffer before can roll again despite having the gear, so there’s no hard lockout on it), I imagine that your first chance would likely be 3:24, or 1:8 of a chance to win a coffer on your first roll. After the first coffer is claimed, you still have 2 more rolls and are now against 23 other people—so 2:23. After the second coffer is claimed, you have 1 remaining chance against the remaining 22 individuals, so 1:22. This isn’t factoring in crap rolls going against high 90s or anything—just basic odds.

But I could be wrong.

[Frooty]

I think thats right actually, been forever since i took probabiliy tho

[Crushnight]

odds at getting a coffer is 1:24 you just get 3 chances of that ratio
This can change(should but seeing as you can reroll on them >_>) to 1:23 then 1:22 at best(if everyone wants) after the 1st and 2nd coffer has been distributed respectfully.
but if you get someone who use coffer while in duty then rerolls for another(just being mean if do that) you could be perpetually stuck with a 1:24 ratio (if someone rerolls after winning and using the coffer i wouldn't put it past them to discard and reroll on the 3rd <- being a very very small minority of people).

There is also no way of knowing who has had the coffer already as well and won't reroll and those that do not care for it in the slightest so your luck can range from 3x 1:24 ratio to a 1:1 ratio where you get it automatically just blind luck really.

[HyoMinPark]

You can’t use the coffer inside of duties—it can only be opened in city-states. But that doesn’t stop a person who won one coffer in their last run from using it, re-queuing, and then rolling again.

I only included 3:24 since you have a bit higher odds on the first roll given that you have 3 different lots to bump your chances of rolling lucky. But your odds decrease significantly after that first coffer is awarded. I also just used the default scenario of “everyone lots for it” as opposed to considering factors where x amount of people decided not to roll at all. Obviously, your odds change with that as well—but I’m just speaking “in general”.

I think thats right actually, been forever since i took probabiliy tho

Same.

[Crushnight]

You can’t use the coffer inside of duties—it can only be opened in city-states. But that doesn’t stop a person who won one coffer in their last run from using it, re-queuing, and then rolling again.

I only included 3:24 since you have a bit higher odds on the first roll given that you have 3 different lots to bump your chances of rolling lucky. But your odds decrease significantly after that first coffer is awarded. I also just used the default scenario of “everyone lots for it” as opposed to considering factors where x amount of people decided not to roll at all. Obviously, your odds change with that as well—but I’m just speaking “in general”.



Same.

But they can still discard it(most won't thankfully) and could then reroll which is an issue with no real way to prevent in case someone who did it accidentally >_>, if you allow one possiblity(no one doing the aforementioned action) you gotta allow them all which leaves the ratio at 1:24 at worst

[KitingGenbu]

You know who won it instead??

Emel Sexy. This isn't even his final form....

As for continuously obtaining the chest, I would say that would be a more realistic and sooner seen issue to solve vs overhauling the system. All they have to do is do it like how you can't loot mount items once its already in your character's system. Probably a bit more elaborate to code since mounts just go to a tab and the clothes can be literally anywhere on your character's accessible inventories (retainer/dresser/etc). I suppose if they had that much sorted out, you'd only ever be able to have one map across all inventories.

[wereotter]

The way I think of the chances are as follows:

Since there’s 3 coffers and 24 individuals (and individuals that have won the coffer before can roll again despite having the gear, so there’s no hard lockout on it), I imagine that your first chance would likely be 3:24, or 1:8 of a chance to win a coffer on your first roll. After the first coffer is claimed, you still have 2 more rolls and are now against 23 other people—so 2:23. After the second coffer is claimed, you have 1 remaining chance against the remaining 22 individuals, so 1:22. This isn’t factoring in crap rolls going against high 90s or anything—just basic odds.

But I could be wrong.

Your odds get even better when you consider people who aren't rolling on the coffer. I stopped as soon as I found out that the gear inside doesn't change to the outfit 9S wears when worn by a male character, and as that information becomes more known, more people will stop rolling on it.

[Lilseph]

I kinda calculated a 4.3% to 4.4% from getting the chest if 24 people roll for it and if two people got it already respectively. So you have 3 chances of roughly 4-ish% of getting it. If the chest were split on each alliance, it would be a 12%. Here is when I'm confused... 3 attempts of 4% or 1 attempt of 12%? What's better?

[Raiya]

Likely if they're giving out a costume a run we get 9S for the next one and A2 on the final.

[Wynaut96]

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.