Thread: Astro changes 5.1

Originally Posted by Brandedblade

Thanks for the misquote. The point I was making was the fact that 5.0 is what made me switch from SCH to AST because I prefer the way AST plays now. AST is consistent and therefore it's fun for me now. Perhaps my error was not saying that there are other reasons I prefer AST besides the cards being more consistant? Such as AST's unlimited weave space and the fact that it's now the busiest of the healers gameplay wise, and that I find the Card into Divination loop far more engaging then fire and forgetting Chain.

And the fun part? I still do infact play SCH on occasion. But god forbid someone play multiple healers I'm a game where you can be multiple classes on the same character. But because of how AST has changed in 5.0 it's my preferred one now. My condolences if that makes you think I'm one of the people who ruined your class for you.

No problem happy to ^^ , makes it easy to get more info out of people afterall :P

But the context is still there you didn't want to deal with AST pre 5.0 because it was too rng well that barely changed still plenty of rng on AST what with only 24% chance for 3 seal divination in 3 draws, with no redraws, so still more than 3/4 of the time you will need to fish. Everything being damage is nice but it has no flavor, no energy, no fun, no high on winning that lucky draw anymore.

Also shocking news i play all 3 healers even now, i know invested in all healers but have a preference for 1 the horror, the horror, yet that one was changed after 4 years of being nice to play, dun, dun, dun, so i'm unhappy and voicing for c-c-c-c-change /swoon :O

So for those who advocate the illusion of choice mentality,
Dnc has an illusion of choice
Old AST card system was not an illusion of choice
How do they differ? well i'll explain.

Dnc's illusion of choices are 1 step standard and 1,2,3 step technical, why would you do these at any point, they are options you can do but are functionally worthless, they are less potency by a good amount and not really worth the gcd loss to do especially technical step as you always want it up for boss being there.

How does old AST differ?
Bole - reduced dmg unpredictable but can be used during mass pulls reducing stress on you
Ewer- unpredictable extra mp regen (how many AST's currently feel the sting of mp presevation now) certainly useful when mass rezzes are needed or your co-healer just died.
Arrow- speed up, unpredictable, mighty handy for jobs like sam/war/blm/whm less so for others
Spear-Crit up unpredictable, always useful(especially brd/mnk)
Balance- Dmg up, unpredictable, always useful
Spire- tp regen, unpredictable, very useful in HW near useless in SB unless melee/tank suffered multiple deaths in a short duration.
Lord - Ogcd dmg , unpredictable, always useful
Lady - Ogcd heal, unpredictable, somewhat useful as other than ED this severely helped with Drk's living dead while allowing you to still dps or just extra heal power in dps mode.

So while there are clear favorites that people want, only Spire was near functionally worthless and in SB only due to tp changes that came with the expansion, this whole balance was the only card is wrong it wasn't balance couldn't function without its counterparts in the deck, what illusion of choice was there every card had a use if you couldn't handle deciding on the fly what buff was best on whom AST was not the healer for you, still not, but dear god do i miss those other flavors they certainly kept the monotonous gameplay at bay longer.

Originally Posted by LariaKirin

Considering you get 4 Redraws per Divination window, why would you not use them to raise your probability of a 3 seal divination to 80%?

Actually you only get a 32% chance to have 3 seal divination in 3 draws with using redraw on 2nd and 3rd draw, redrawing only changes the odds once, anytime after the 1st doesn't increase your odds of getting the correct seal as the probability remains the same.

1 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 0.22(my bad math brain pooped today not 24% but 22%) - base probability you get what you want with no interference
1 x 4/5 x 2/5 = 0.32 - the probability of getting what you want with redraw on both the 2nd and 3rd draw

and the moment you redraw is the moment you are fishing the very reason the devs cited for the card system change

Originally Posted by Crushnight

Actually you only get a 32% chance to have 3 seal divination in 3 draws with using redraw on 2nd and 3rd draw, redrawing only changes the odds once, anytime after the 1st doesn't increase your odds of getting the correct seal as the probability remains the same.

1 x 2/3 x 1/3 = 0.22(my bad math brain pooped today not 24% but 22%) - base probability you get what you want with no interference
1 x 4/5 x 2/5 = 0.32 - the probability of getting what you want with redraw on both the 2nd and 3rd draw

and the moment you redraw is the moment you are fishing the very reason the devs cited for the card system change

That is not how probability works.

1) When looking for the 2nd seal, you have 2 seals you don't need and 4 seals you need. That means a Draw has a 2/3 probability to give you what you want. A Redraw has a 4/5 probability to give you what you want.

In order to use a Redraw, you have to FAIL a Draw. You have to calculate it as a chain of probabilities. You either succeed with the 2/3 or you fail (1/3 of the time) and succeed with the 4/5.
If you do "Draw + Redraw", then your probability to get a different seal is 2/3 (succeed Draw) + 1/3 (fail Draw) * 4/5 (succeed Redraw) = 14/15 = 0.9333 = 93.33%.


2) As for the 3rd seal, you have 4 seals you don't need and 2 seals you need. That means a Draw has a 1/3 probability to give you what you want. A Redraw has a 2/5 probability to give you what you want.

The same logic applies. You either succeed with the 1/3 or you fail (2/3 of the time) and succeed with the 2/5. That is 1/3 (succeed Draw) + 2/3 (fail Draw) * 2/5 (succeed Redraw) = 9/15 = 0.600 (60%).


Putting both together, with a strategy of Draw (1st seal), Draw + Redraw (2nd seal), Draw + Redraw (3rd seal), your overall probability for a 3 seal Divination is 14/15 * 3/5 = 42/75 = 0.56 (56%)
We have one more Draw and 2 more Redraws that we have not considered in the Divination window.

Long story short, you can bring your overall probability over 80% by making calculated decisions about your Draws/Redraws.

If anyone is interested in something more in-depth, just drop a DM.