Eden Savage Loot System Math

[Rathael]

Since there was a comment in the other thread about the current system being mathematically more beneficial to the player than the old system, I wanted to do a quick bit of napkin math to see if there was any truth behind the statement. Please make any corrections if you find them.

Old system
Assuming each set type had an equal chance of dropping (this is likely not true, however, considering that there are more jobs that use certain sets than others), we know there are 7 set types: Fending, Maiming, Striking, Scouting, Aiming, Casting, Healing.

I personally have never seen two items of the same set type drop in any previous savage content so I am going to assume the maximum number of boxes of your type is 1. Assuming 3 pieces of loot drop:

Chance that loot 1 is not of your type: 1 - (1/7) = 85.71%

Assuming you didn't win that, there are now 6 item types in the pool:

Chance that loot 2 is not of your type: 0.8571 * (1-(1/6)) = 71.43%

now there are 5 item types in the pool:

Chance that loot 3 is not of your type: 0.7143 * (1-(1/5)) = 57.14%

Therefore the maximum chance that a loot box of your type drops is 42.86%. Note, again, this is assuming that set types have equal chances of dropping, which may not have been the case. In groups where you have no competitors, this is your chance of winning an item.

In typical groups, you would likely have one competitor to roll against. This brings your chance of winning an item down to 21.43%

New system
Typically in the new system, unless you are in a static, players will tend to roll on everything for maximum chances of winning an item either for their main or for their alt jobs. You will typically have 7 competitors.

Chance of you not winning loot 1: 7/8 = 87.5%

In the new system, I have heard it is possible to win multiple items, so the pool of competitors does not decrease.

Chance of you not winning loot 2: 0.875 * (7/8) = 76.56%

Chance of you not winning loot 3: 0.7656 * (7/8) = 66.99%

Your chance of winning a single item is therefore just about 33%

If there is a particular person who does not want a particular item, the chances of you winning do not chance too drastically:

1 - (7/8 * 6/7 * 7/8) = 34.38%

If there are quite a few people that are passing on various items, your chances can increase quite a lot. For example, if 3 people do not want a particular item and 1 person does not want another:

1- (7/8 * 4/5 * 6/7) = 40%

Assuming you yourself are only interested in 1 or 2 particular items and everyone else is interested in the same items:

1 - (7/8 * 7/8) =23.44%

Summary
In the old system, you had a much higher chance to win an item if you had no competitors. However, if you would have had a competitor, the new system gives you a substantially higher chance to win a single item if you want all of the items up for grabs.

If you are only interested in 2 of the 3 items, your chances of winning one of those two items is about the same as if you had one competitor in the old system.

In short, i think it's safe to say that as long as you are rolling on everything, you have a greater chance of winning an item in the new system. The old system was only superior if your potential competitor did not need the loot you were rolling on.

Unfortunately the new system also heavily promotes gearing alts, so it is certain that you will always have numerous competitors. The old system lowered the chances of having competitors due to the fact that you could not roll need for alts.

On the other hand the new system obviously eliminates the disappointment of a set-type nobody in the group needs dropping. Not everyone gets loot in the new system, but every piece of loot goes to someone.

The new system very much rewards players that have alts. It is more punishing on players that are focusing on gearing just one job. However, it also promotes role flexibility. This naturally increases the incentive for players to join a party as a job that fills needed roles, even if they want to gear up something else. For example, I am focusing on gearing up my BLM but I know I can join and clear E1S as DRK. This helps the community overall because there are fewer tanks than DPS on my data center.

The new system will likely significantly slow down general progress of party-finder groups. It is harder to attain loot for your main class and easier to attain loot for your alt classes. The hardest bosses in the content require that you have all your best gear on one main job, and it will take longer for you to reach that point unless you are in a static.

[Tristann]

I am going to assume the maximum number of boxes of your type is 1

Wrong.

Assuming 3 pieces of loot drop

Wrong.

The hardest bosses in the content require that you have all your best gear on one main job

Git gud.

[Pepsi_Plunge]

I personally have never seen two items of the same set type drop in any previous savage content so I am going to assume the maximum number of boxes of your type is 1. Assuming 3 pieces of loot drop:

Chance that loot 1 is not of your type: 1 - (1/7) = 85.71%

Assuming you didn't win that, there are now 6 item types in the pool:

Chance that loot 2 is not of your type: 0.8571 * (1-(1/6)) = 71.43%

Let me stop you right there, because that's where you are wrong. It's always 1/7 because an Item can drop multiple times. Or at least be of the same class. You can get a ring of fending, an earring of fending and a bracelet of fending all in the same run and leave as a happy tank (if you win against your co-tank, that is). Or there can be two earrings of fending, etc.

[HyoMinPark]

I personally have never seen two items of the same set type drop in any previous savage content so I am going to assume the maximum number of boxes of your type is 1.

This is incorrect. The old system made it possible for both drops to be specific to a type. I saw double double Fending accessories from O9S happen more than once last tier (and we didn’t see a single Striking accessory until Week 9—I only remember this because of the sheer amount of complaining our melee did every week lol).

In typical groups, you would likely have one competitor to roll against. This brings your chance of winning an item down to 21.43%

The only ones you can apply this to are tanks and healers. A lot of Savage PFs would lock out jobs in the same role to prevent this for the DPS (e.g., if you had a BRD already, a MCH couldn’t join). The sole exception is the Striking accessories from the first floor.

On the other hand the new system obviously eliminates the disappointment of a set-type nobody in the group needs dropping. Not everyone gets loot in the new system, but every piece of loot goes to someone.

Sadly, this won’t apply to the random weapon drop in the final floor. It can still drop something completely useless to your group—as my static has seen every week save Week 3, when the WHM weapon dropped for our WHM (we’ve gotten duplicates of every DPS weapon for our group save DNC [so, BLM, SAM, and DRG]...after the DPS in question was already given the weapon coffer the prior week, and the WAR axe; neither of our tanks want to play WAR. Oh, and we saw a second WHM cane that was given to me one week).

The new system will likely significantly slow down general progress of party-finder groups. It is harder to attain loot for your main class and easier to attain loot for your alt classes. The hardest bosses in the content require that you have all your best gear on one main job, and it will take longer for you to reach that point unless you are in a static.

This isn’t true. E4S was killed in near minimum item level gear by plenty during Week 1/Week 2. You don’t need full i470 for him—at most, it provides a buffer that allows you to make more mistakes, but it’s not needed.

The only fights you will need full BiS on are the Ultimate fights.

[KageTokage]

I wish they'd halve the amount of books needed to buy gear because having to wait nearly two months to get a piece from ES3/4 if you're exceptionally unlucky is a bit ridiculous.

Even if the odds from the old system were statistically worse, it felt a heck of a lot less soul-crushing to be guaranteed an item when it does finally decide drop instead of repeatedly losing rolls to people on alt accounts/jobs or who are already in BiS on their main job week after week.

[Noitems]

Honestly the big thing I wish the game did was look into your inventory (like an isearch) and see if you own the specific coffer piece equipment, and then automatically default it to greed if you do.

I know people want to gear alts, but a system like this specifically for pugs makes it much much harder to gear. With 8 books needed to get one piece of gear and the late comers to raiding who may have horrible rng it's really upsetting to see people playing catchup who will honestly just have to default to Aug Deepshadow just due to time restraints.

I understand the SE mindset of making it last for a while to get everyone geared. But this whole loot system while I prefer over the same gear dropping twice like in previous, really is more debilitating if you aren't part of a static and EVERYONE without gear or WITH gear has an equal chance rolling.

JP DC's use it how I would want it to, only greeding if they already have the piece and letting the others need if they don't, while over here it's just "Oh god please spare me".

[DrWho2010]

issue is the raid is out for 6 months - you have plenty of time to gear up one, maybe two classes - any more than that this early in expac is unnecessary because new crafted higher level gear will be released at the same time as the next raid tier. As for "having to wait 2 months if you're unlucky" well that's just the way the cookie crumbles.

JP are more considerate in terms of gear sometimes, NA is mostly greedy greedy greedy lol.

[KageTokage]

At this point I'm legitimately worried I'm not going to have BiS by the time ultimate drops, as I only just now got an eighth book to buy something with, meaning I need to still win a coffer within the next four weeks or so.

I wish people would reason that the more people there are running around in BiS, the smoother PF will be for everyone in general, but I keep getting outrolled by people who are gearing alt jobs...