Incorrect binary to decimal conversion of success probability.

[Evilpaul]

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Date & Time: Today, but also yesterday, the day before yesterday
Frequency: 435AEF3% of the time
World name: Cactuar
Character name: Evilpaul Cerberus
Retainer name: Luaplive (It's "evilpaul" spelled backwards.)
Class/Level: All the crafters/gatherers I've done manu
Party or solo: Solo. There should be group-attacking rocks and trees though. That sounds super amazing.
In-game time: A bunch.
Area and coordinates: I like "New York" area in the new expac for crafting, but it happens in all of them. Or all the ones I've tried. There's lots of areas in the game.
Housing: It's broken in Apartments, Private and FC Housing on crafters. There's no gathering in housing yet.

Steps:
1. Perform a crafting/gathering action with a 90%+ success rate.
2. Action fails.
3. Perform an action with a 90%+ success rate.
4. Action fails.
5. Perform an action with a 90%+ success rate.
6. Action fails.
7. Try again on a new synth/gathering attempt, and it repeats.
8. Odds of 90% failing 3x in a row? 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.1 = 0.01%.
So, you should win the Cacpot about as often as you see this happen if the binary to decimal probability conversion is working correctly.
9. The game internally uses x/1024 (I believe) for probability, which doesn't directly translate to decimal, so I believe there's an error in the function that's converting to decimal.
10. Should only take about ten minutes to reproduce the 3x failure with 90% success rate on a crafter/gatherer action, because it happens to me numerous times per hour.
*Add more steps if necessary - I did, thanks!

Connection Specs
- Type of internet connection/provider: Verizon FiOS, it's terrible, I don't recommend.
- Modem maker/model number: "Sufboard" modem. It's the standard one Verizon gives you.

■ PC Specs

To obtain the system information, open the FFXIV launcher and select Config → System Information → Display.

-=-=-=-=- System Information -=-=-=-=-
It happens on PC and PS4, not really system specific. Friends have the same happen on their systems.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Browser Information
- Name and version of the browser currently in-use:
- Chrome Dev

[Rongway]

You have an arithmetic error in 8.

That aside, 0.1% is still not 0%. That you find yourself unfortunately in that 0.1% space seemingly often isn't a bug. RNG is RNG.

[MistakeNot]

While RNG is RNG, and while everything points to the percentages being correct when tested against a large number of checks, there does seem to be something odd with the RNG used.

"Streaks" with multiple failures or successes in a row seem to be more common than they should be. While some streaks of bad luck or good luck are inevitable with any good RNG, they do seem to be longer and more common than should be expected from a perfect RNG. Since streaks of bad luck seem just as common as those of good luck it all appears to average out in the end, so it is not clear if this is to be considered a bug or not.

Someone better at statistics than me would be needed to verify if the impression of streaks of good/bad luck happening to often is correct or not.

[Tinibou]

It happened to me too several times while leveling my gatherer. You have like 90% or even 95% of chances to gather an item but no, you fail like 3 or 4 times in a row... WTF ?

It's exactly the same problem I noticed many many times while crafting.
OK RNG is a thing but when you fail a skill like seven or eight times in a row... It's not RNG, it's an issue ! 0.0000001% ? LOL
Considering the lag and time needed to execute a skill, I always thought there were real problems with crafting...

And I'm happy someone is FINALLY talking about it. Players are too much like "It's RNG, it's OK, the game is as it is" no, just no.