How do calamities work, again?

[Ilenya]

To add to this (some major spoilers from some Role Quest revelations):

So not only were Ardbert and co too efficient, they were also too heroic.

That's hilarious

[ChaoticCrimson]

I'm not sure if floods in and of themselves are entirely counterproductive, but I'm sure the Ascians don't want another fiasco like the Thirteenth to occur, causing potential damage to the whole upon rejoining. I suspect this is why Elidibus sent Ardbert and his group to the Source, probably as a way to hasten the First's rejoining before things went too far by having them begin the Eighth Umbral Calamity. After all, I get the impression that Black Rose was an improvised contingency plan afterwards due to the discovery of it's increased potency due to the change in the Source's aether brought about from the trickle effect from the First. I could be off-base though, as I'm still processing all the new info we have now.

[CaesarCV]

After all, I get the impression that Black Rose was an improvised contingency plan afterwards due to the discovery of it's increased potency due to the change in the Source's aether brought about from the trickle effect from the First. I could be off-base though, as I'm still processing all the new info we have now.

This seems to be the case given the information on the Black Rose we are aware of. The Black Rose was a project conducted by a Legio XIV Scientist in Ala Migho attempting to create a powerful new weapon for the Garlean Military. As far as we know, it was just intended as a 'conventional' chemical weapon, albeit a rather devastatingly effective one given how there's still evidence of its poison decades after the testing. Gaius Van Baelsar, commander of the Legion at the time, was not fond of this weapon. He sought to conquer and convert rather than eliminate native populations. He canceled the project, and its creator went mad. However, the formula for creating it (or notes or what have you) still existed and made it to Garlemald Proper.

The timeline becomes muddied from there on in, but Solus/Emet-Selch seems to have become aware of it more recently as he explored Varis's science projects. He found it perfect for producing a Cataclysm due to its aetherial qualities, leading to the plan in Shadowbringers. In Shadowbringers Varis mentions how Solus/Emet-Selch had a way of tricking Varis into ideas that he thought were his own. His desire to rejoin the shards to 'make humanity strong enough to defeat the Ascians' and his seeming obsession with Black Rose are likely both examples of this.

[Kreyd]

So it pretty much goes like:

1. Inbalance in favor of one element in one of the shards. (water for e.g.)
2. Aether starts tickling to the source. (causing smaller to medium disturbances in the source as well as in the shard)
3. Something "cracks" the barrier between (the war of magi for e.g.)
4. All the aether plus the shard itself flowes back to the source at once (rejoining), which...
5. ...causes a calamity.

Did I get it right?

[Big-Isaac]

Another thing I don't quite understand yet is... weren't the Ascians in the process of ruining their own plan?
The way the Exarch describes his future, what happened when black rose was used wasn't a calamity, but a world ender. It seems like life on the Source was on its last legs with no hope in sight. This means that, had the Exarch not changed the future, life on the Source would have ended, which would have torpedoed the Ascians' plan. With no people around, there would have been no way to trigger the rest of the needed calamities. And even had they somehow managed to cause the rejoining anyways, there would have been no more life left on the Source to feed to Zodiark.

And on that note, is it even possible for the Ascians to succeed any more? Even if they manage to rejoin 12 of the shards, that still leaves the void shard. Emet himself admits that they screwed that world up something fierce, so doesn't that mean that, even in if everything else went smoothly for them, they'd be forever stuck at 13 out of 14?

[Ilenya]

Another thing I don't quite understand yet is... weren't the Ascians in the process of ruining their own plan?
The way the Exarch describes his future, what happened when black rose was used wasn't a calamity, but a world ender. It seems like life on the Source was on its last legs with no hope in sight. This means that, had the Exarch not changed the future, life on the Source would have ended, which would have torpedoed the Ascians' plan. With no people around, there would have been no way to trigger the rest of the needed calamities. And even had they somehow managed to cause the rejoining anyways, there would have been no more life left on the Source to feed to Zodiark.

Eh. There would have been a point where the Black Rose stopped affecting people (clearly some were immune anyways) and few enough people fighting that things would have balanced out eventually. I'm wondering what sort of world would have arisen from that? An almost religiously Pacifistic singular nation?

[QT_Melon]

Eh. There would have been a point where the Black Rose stopped affecting people (clearly some were immune anyways) and few enough people fighting that things would have balanced out eventually. I'm wondering what sort of world would have arisen from that? An almost religiously Pacifistic singular nation?

Question: do all civilizations that do arise from a calamity become that element, complete opposite or random?

[CaesarCV]

Question: do all civilizations that do arise from a calamity become that element, complete opposite or random?

There's always influence from the calamity itself, but it's not like the civilizations are directly attuned to any particular element. For example, after the calamity of Ice people hid in ice caves during the Umbral Era and eventually mastered Fire Magic, but it's not like they were the 'ice civilization' or anything like that.

[Ilenya]

Question: do all civilizations that do arise from a calamity become that element, complete opposite or random?

Generally speaking the new civilizations that arise tend to be against whatever the old Civilizations did to 'cause' the Calamity. There's probably going to be a massive anti-war anti-WoMD bias in the end in the 'normal' timeline.

[QT_Melon]

Generally speaking the new civilizations that arise tend to be against whatever the old Civilizations did to 'cause' the Calamity. There's probably going to be a massive anti-war anti-WoMD bias in the end in the 'normal' timeline.

Why would it be anti war though? Black Rose is light aspected? That element is passive and peaceful. Wouldn't it just raise more ruckus?

Ahh to cause it, I see what you mean.