Shiver Emote : two YEARS of farming on average

[Yshan]

Some napkin math adjust as you see fit:


Our friends of reddit opened 1729 cold warped lockboxes and found a 0.002 chance of getting the emote. [Notes 1 and 2]
For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes.
But lockboxes drop from every 3rd to 4th mob and with eight people in the group

that's 36 thousand mobs. Assuming everyone needs one.

At one minute a mob results in 600 hours.
Playing 2 hours a day , 5 days a week with a solid hour chaining (will you really get this
considering one has to form and fill a party , refill on drop outs, chase NMs?) so 120 weeks of doing nothing but Pagos.



Nope I'm out.



Note 1: Original link to the brave souls who did this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...ped_lockboxes/



Note 2: The actual success percentage is so close to zero a simple division isn't accurate. Using Wilson with continuity correction yields a 95% confidence interval of
0.0009 to 0.0059. Why Wilson , I'm lazy and could just look it up.