around 30-40% of french players are on Selbina but some of them will move on ragnarok.
For the french people of anothers servers, most of them will move on ragnarok , so this server will have between 40-70% of the french community, between 150 and 250 players maybe more if inactives peoples come back with 1.21.
For the NA and JP linkshell of wutai, some announced their trip on Ragnarok because it can be a new challenge, so i believe it's the same on others servers.
Yes, we don't have any real number of who are moving on this new server but, nobody can say for sure "this server will be a fail" or "this server will be a success", it's easier to doubt than to believe but some people believe in it and it may be enough to make an average server.
The posibility to move is now available, we will see in few weeks.