I know it's terrible, but I tend to forget that Papalymo died. Perhaps because we never really saw "Yda without Papalymo" to have that absence properly sink in, and then the MSQ was urgently rushing onwards.
It's been a while since my only run through Stormblood, but I think it was only really close to the end that we finally found out that Lyse's narration was supposed to be talking to Papalymo the whole time? Perhaps it would have been better to be clearer from the start, for more of a constant reminder of how much she's thinking of him and missing him.
Prettymuch, yes.
You can see a full list of interactable NPCs in each zone at Garland Tools - the Dravanian field areas are a good example to look at, since the main characters are constantly moving through the area and you talk with them at different locations. What that actually looks like is that, for example, there are over twenty "Alphinaud" NPCs throughout the Dravanian Forelands. Each one has a fixed location and its own set lines of dialogue, and would be set to appear or disappear as you complete certain objectives. Final storytelling result: Alphinaud-the-person is moving from place to place.
I guess it's similar when you approach someone, talk to them and then have to fight them 'on the spot' - you can see the "interactable NPC" vanish and get replaced by a fighting "enemy NPC". Or from memory, "escort FATEs" work similarly - the trigger NPC who stands there waiting for someone to agree to accompany them gets switched out for a mobile "friendly NPC" with a health bar.
That's prettymuch what I was thinking.
For someone who had already cleared all the quests that Urianger gives, apparently he was absent from the Waking Sands as soon as the MSQ called for it. But for those of us who still had active quests, he remained present so they could be completed.
If you complete those quests now, he will be absent from the Waking Sands from that point onwards. I saw this happen myself, as I only completed the Binding Coil recently. (Both his quest chains end away from the Sands, so there's no sudden vanishing into thin air, he's just not there the next time you visit.)
So they've already provided that at this point they will make a solid break from having him locked into position for the sake of those quests, and are willing to bend the timeline - not break it as such, just allow a little pocket of 2.X time to continue into the present for as long as it's needed. There can be lots of these strange time pockets about in any case, depending on which "canonically happened" quests you have and haven't completed.
As you mentioned, Estinien in the ARR dragoon questline is a good example of this. Not only does he not recognise you, but he's still the Azure Dragoon and in possession of the (singular!) Eye of Nidhogg. If you're completely beyond Heavensward, everything makes it clear that you've stepped back in time to do this quest - although I imagine it must be a bit confusing if you're partway through Heavensward and Estinien does still look the same in the "present" time as the dragoon quests in the "past". Or if you did them mid-Dragonsong, which would certainly put a different spin on things.



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