Crafting mechanics and probability engine...

[TattersailNightwish]

If I didn't know better (and I probably don't) I'd almost make a guess that when condition is Excellent, that some under-the-covers modifier gets baked into the equation.
I would venture to say that I have a <=50% success rate on Synths when Excellent. I see "Excellent" and say "oh boy.." cross my fingers...

Just my observation, YMMV. Just seems that way to me.

[Elamys]

If I didn't know better (and I probably don't) I'd almost make a guess that when condition is Excellent, that some under-the-covers modifier gets baked into the equation.
I would venture to say that I have a <=50% success rate on Synths when Excellent. I see "Excellent" and say "oh boy.." cross my fingers...

Just my observation, YMMV. Just seems that way to me.

This is the only "conspiracy theory" related to listed success rates that I sort of believe. It seems that on Excellent procs, it's like I have a baseline lower chance to succeed. I almost never succeed an unbuffed touch on Excellent.

[Jojoya]

This is the only "conspiracy theory" related to listed success rates that I sort of believe. It seems that on Excellent procs, it's like I have a baseline lower chance to succeed. I almost never succeed an unbuffed touch on Excellent.

And yet I've had several times when I've done it successfully without Steady Hand I/II, definitely more than it's failed on me. I will say that it seems to fail more on a high level item than a lower level item but that could just be the typical perception bias.

My personal beef is with Armorer and Rapid Synth. You can't get Rapid Synth to 100% even with Steady Hand II so there is always that chance of failure. My failures still seem more or less in line with the success chance in all the jobs except ARM. With ARM, I get about 2 out of 3 failing. I mentioned the situation as a joke in FC chat and the other omni-crafter went "you too?". He had noticed the same thing - his failures were pretty much in line with what they should be except for ARM.

It makes me wonder what they use to determine the seed for the random number generator on crafting procs. Bad seeds have been known to skew results. If the seed is influenced by character/account data, it would explain why some players consistently see a result outside of what's expected while others don't - they likely ended up with a bad seed.

[Elamys]

And yet I've had several times when I've done it successfully without Steady Hand I/II, definitely more than it's failed on me. I will say that it seems to fail more on a high level item than a lower level item but that could just be the typical perception bias.

My personal beef is with Armorer and Rapid Synth. You can't get Rapid Synth to 100% even with Steady Hand II so there is always that chance of failure. My failures still seem more or less in line with the success chance in all the jobs except ARM. With ARM, I get about 2 out of 3 failing. I mentioned the situation as a joke in FC chat and the other omni-crafter went "you too?". He had noticed the same thing - his failures were pretty much in line with what they should be except for ARM.

It makes me wonder what they use to determine the seed for the random number generator on crafting procs. Bad seeds have been known to skew results. If the seed is influenced by character/account data, it would explain why some players consistently see a result outside of what's expected while others don't - they likely ended up with a bad seed.

That's really strange. I haven't noticed any differences from crafter to crafter. I might start keeping track of stuff like that though. I'm not generally one for theorycrafting and crunching numbers in the game but it would be nice to know