Quote Originally Posted by MistakeNot View Post
Unless you have several hundred tries (as an absolute minimum) to compare against, you have no idea if the RNG is good or not.
You would need many thousands of samples to be able to tell for certain if it is working correctly.
Only sort of. In the long term over hundreds or thousands of synths I'd bet the numbers would be pretty close to the listed percentages. I don't think anyone is denying or debating that. The issue is the short term and how the game gets to that point.

I don't know how the game calculates things but the RNG is this game is way more streaky than in pretty much any other game I've ever played (in everything, not just crafting.) I expect random things to come in streaks occasionally, random is random after all, but I do not expect it to happen all the time. It's like the game tries to balance percentages by keeping track and swinging the pendulum back the other way if it gets too far off balance. That keeps the numbers straight over time but in insane in the short term. (Three 90% fails in a row, twice, in 20 minutes of crafting, should be a rarity, not a regular occurrence.)