The coming Garlean invasion

[Unazaki]

Alright, 4.4 is out, and I think by now we've pretty much all seen the ending cutscenes in all its foreshadowing glory. The empire is likely mobilizing, and it seems that we're going to be faced with the full might of the empire by 5.0, which begs the question.........

HOW IN THE WORLD IS THE EORZEAN ALLIANCE GOING TO EVEN STAND A CHANCE???

We're talking a combined arms force spanning air, land and sea, with armored tanks, howitzer artillery pieces, battleships and an air force that for all intents and purposes is going to enjoy complete air supremacy. Looking at the Eorzean Alliance with its medieval style army with no armored units, no battleships, and no real airforce to speak of (No I do not consider the Gridanian and Ishgardian transport fleets to be a viable air combat force. Same goes for those bird things from Doma/Ala Mhigo), we're gonna get royally curbed stomped.

Even if we can hold them on the ground and sea through sheer numbers, grit and plot armor (AKA being the WOL), Garlemald would just bomb us to pieces with its air force, and unlike us, they can engage and attack at their leisure, dictating when and where battles are fought. Ishgard may have some air defenses, but lets be honest, those were designed against dravanians who had to fly in close to engage. The Agrius can simply just hover high up and blind fire munitions against us, way out of the range of any Ishgardian cannons or harpoons.

Really, the only hope I see right now is for us to somehow convince the Dravanians of all broods, Hraesvelgr, Nidhogg or whatever, to join the alliance. Even then, it would be a real long shot that we'd come out on top. Dravanians are more maneuverable, but each loss is harder to replace as it takes years for them to mature to a combat ready age (100+ I think from the dravanian side quests). Garlemald can simply manufacture new aircraft, taking AT MOST 1 year. The law of numbers simply doesn't work in our favour.

Actually I don't they'd throw in their lot with us unless they themselves were targeted, I mean Hraesvelgr wouldn't act against Nidhogg almost killing his own daughter, I seriously doubt he'd care enough about our little war unless he had to.

So how are we going to be able to fight the empire head on? I'm really curious as to what every1 thinks ^^

[MuseTraveller]

Yeah but...we have Limit Break 3. B)
aka, Eorzeans have magic. That should count for something. Plus someone will likely come up with some magical McGuffin in the right moment.

[Heliantheae]

Maybe Tiamat? Maybe that thing she's in is dampening her more than she let on. And the thing we activated turned it off. Don't know how strong she is, but just seeing her would have to the the Garleans pause giving their track records with dragons.

[Cybylt]

Yeah comparing strictly by technology forgets that we have actual magic on our side and the garlean technology is only leveling the playing field. The other races didn't develop that tech because they didn't need it because magic.

Air superiority? Ishgard has teams of people who can jump from the ground to the bridge of an airship and stab all the unsuspecting crew. Agrias class ships get locked down indefinitely with a single well placed Blizzard 3. Five thaumaturges busted through several feet of steel at the battle for Ala Mhigo.

In the initial invasion Garlemald's biggest strengths were surprise, numbers, and a disorganized opponent. They still have numbers, but the combined strength of the Alliance isn't something to scoff at.

[Theodric]

Garlemald is not going to invade at full strength. The current leader of Garlemald does not want to follow Solus' path.

Hopefully the Eorzean Alliance is in for a nasty shock, though. They've been due to be knocked down a few pegs due to their growing hubris for a while now. We're getting dangerously close to the same problem that plagued WoW's storytelling - despite the Horde being vastly outnumbered by the Alliance and suffering a constant string of losses it never ceased to be able to hold its own in a fight. As it stands, I'm hoping that the Eorzean Alliance will fail to push deep into Garlean territory and will only gain entry through striking a deal with Varis himself. Garlemald isn't the enemy, the Ascians are.

[Lauront]

I think some of the commentary here is lacking in perspective.

The Purebloods rely more on their magitek, yes, but the Empire has for a long while now been enlisting magi into its ranks. And lest we forget, it's not so much the Empire as we knew it, as it is the Ascians. Amongst many other things, they possess superlative mastery over magic, and are most likely behind the Resonance. The Resonance can both be implanted in regular mortals and Purebloods to mimic the echo, but we've also seen that some Garlean specialists have taken after the Allagan in creating enhanced monstrosities. So some nations having specialists in magic isn't going to level any playing fields. Ul'dah's collection of summoners and thaumaturges does not make it Sharlayan or Mhach.

We shouldn't be too hasty to infer too much from how Zenos's forces fared, either - he was largely disinterested in actually holding the provinces he governed, as opposed to baiting someone strong enough to fight him. For every Dragoon out there - and they are not that many - the Empire has its own elite soldiers to defend its airships. Then there is the Black Rose, which the Ascians will have zero compunction in using, if it yields them the chaos they desire.

Even the Eorzean alliance's leadership was not so brazen as to assume they could go toe to toe in a direct conflict with the Empire, as displayed in one of the cutscenes - hence, the proposed solution by Thancred to destabilise the Empire through spreading rumours about the Crown Prince being inhabited by a fiend. Alas, something intercepted this meeting - and it's a pretty simple plan that Elidibus no doubt predicted could happen the minute he took over Zenos's body, as it's an obvious risk. Back to the Alliance, two of its members are only now rebuilding and lack resources and could easily be overrun through conventional warfare; Ishgard is recovering from a very long war that left it wounded both spiritually and materially. The other three have never been too impressive as a direct threat to the Empire.

So no, I don't think we're going to see much in the way of direct conflict. The Ascians would love for that to happen, because it will work to their advantage. The way the plotline seems to be going, it appears to be steering us away from direct conflict of this nature. A war may well precipitate a Calamity.

[Bright-Flower]

It's true that Zenos wasn't interested in winning so much as antagonizing people to make someone for him to fight. At the same time though, is that what the Ascians want? To 'defeat' the Alliance? They might be more interested in giving the Alliance a pyrrhic victory rather than just destroying or conquering. Similar to Nidhogg who didn't want to destroy Ishgard, but punish it for eternity, the ascians pulling the strings may be more interested in destablizing the alliance than toppling it.

[Lauront]

True, they probably don't have all their eggs in one basket (at least, some Overlords seem to have their own pet projects), and would have just as likely worked with Thordan had he not had plans of his own. Still, developments in the Empire's fringes, such as the appearance of the Resonance and the increased harnessing of various body-enhancing technologies very similar to those of the Allagan, do not seem to be accidental to me, and I am pretty confident that whoever is controlling Solus, is not eager to let the Empire fall without a fight, as it grants them considerable resources on this world.

I am sure the Ascians are well aware of the fact that the Alliance knows its weaker position and are therefore leaning on it to resort to methods like that proposed by Thancred, because it would cause so much more chaos than a war which would otherwise end fast without such subterfuge, meaning they'd have to go a bit further - either way, it'd get them what they want, but probably slower. Too many deliberate losses could weaken their hold over Garlemald, which I think is going to happen anyway if the Emperor decides to cast his lot with the Scions, meaning they'll have to resort to a plan B, C, etc.

Either way, my main point is that we probably won't see this form of conflict, because i) the Alliance knows it'd be outmatched in conventional warfare; ii) it'd come at the cost of many innocent lives, on both sides, even if it were to succeed (e.g. due to the Ascians allowing for Pyrrhic victories) and iii) it would not directly harm the Ascians and would most likely be to their benefit. Elidibus was, after all, pressing the Emperor to re-take Ala Mhigo, after Elidibus had made short work of the Populares, for the time being. He's a complex thinker, so his true motives may lie elsewhere, but as things stand, he has done everything he can to shore up the Empire's defensive and offensive capacities.

[Rosenoire]

Alright, 4.4 is out, and I think by now we've pretty much all seen the ending cutscenes in all its foreshadowing glory. The empire is likely mobilizing, and it seems that we're going to be faced with the full might of the empire by 5.0,

I think the whole point of this patch was to set things up to explain why we're not going to actually be faced with the full might of the Empire:

1. The Empire's dealing with multiple rebellious provinces. They've put some of them down, but it still requires resources.

2. Someone gave them the Idiot Ball, and they razed Rabanastre, which was their only refueling point between Ilseberd and Othard. Now they'll have to fly over the Burn, which the Alliance is working to make impossible.

3. There's unrest at home. Even in a repressive totalitarian state, there will be dissent. They've mostly managed to silence the Populares, but there are still bound to be rumors and speculation because some people heard that Zenos was dead, and they don't control Doma or Ala Mhigo at the moment. The 24-man raid arc indicates that not all Imperial citizens are happy with the current state of affairs--and the Alliance knows it, and is actively planning to exploit that weakness.

4. Varis is visibly unhappy at being an Ascian puppet, and is balking at doing their bidding.

On the other side, the Alliance just had a major hit, with the only Scions standing being Krile, who's off Eureakaing, and Alisae and the WoL who, let's face it, are exactly who you want if someone needs to be smacked around, but not exactly the intellectual stars of the organization. However, even with Thancred down for the count, his plan is a good one. The Alliance also has allies that we don't even know about in the Shadowhunter and his faction, plus Alphinaud is, at the moment, still alive. My guess is that by the time it comes to all-out war, the situation will have changed dramatically.

[Lauront]

I wouldn't say it's a good plan - it's pretty much their only option. However, if Elidibus is even just a fraction of the strategist we've been told he is, he would be well aware of such a risk the minute he took that body over. Moreover, the fact that we're "contacted" by some other entity just when the plan is proposed, almost seems like a warning that it's doomed to fail. As I said, either works for the Ascians. They don't need direct control over the Empire, although it benefits them for the time being. They just need chaos, and this plan will ensure it.

We'll probably see a turn of events that opens up another avenue, like working with Varis, rather than simply throwing the Empire into chaos. It's probably all going to get very messy.