Shiver Emote : two YEARS of farming on average

[Yshan]

Some napkin math adjust as you see fit:


Our friends of reddit opened 1729 cold warped lockboxes and found a 0.002 chance of getting the emote. [Notes 1 and 2]
For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes.
But lockboxes drop from every 3rd to 4th mob and with eight people in the group

that's 36 thousand mobs. Assuming everyone needs one.

At one minute a mob results in 600 hours.
Playing 2 hours a day , 5 days a week with a solid hour chaining (will you really get this
considering one has to form and fill a party , refill on drop outs, chase NMs?) so 120 weeks of doing nothing but Pagos.



Nope I'm out.



Note 1: Original link to the brave souls who did this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...ped_lockboxes/



Note 2: The actual success percentage is so close to zero a simple division isn't accurate. Using Wilson with continuity correction yields a 95% confidence interval of
0.0009 to 0.0059. Why Wilson , I'm lazy and could just look it up.

[MomomiMomi]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

[Magic-Mal]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

I can confirm that this isn't true. It takes more than 10 seconds to get into Limsa Lominsa

[MomomiMomi]

I can confirm that this isn't true. It takes more than 10 seconds to get into Limsa Lominsa

People still use Limsa? Go to your apartment!


Anyway, to expand on what I said about buying on the MB, this analysis is failing to consider the total amount of man-hours that are being spent in Pagos. Not everyone who gets an emote is going to want it, and some people might get extra ones. You don't have to farm them yourself; trade is a thing.

[DrWho2010]

Some napkin math adjust as you see fit:


Our friends of reddit opened 1729 cold warped lockboxes and found a 0.002 chance of getting the emote. [Notes 1 and 2]
For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes.
But lockboxes drop from every 3rd to 4th mob and with eight people in the group

that's 36 thousand mobs. Assuming everyone needs one.

At one minute a mob results in 600 hours.
Playing 2 hours a day , 5 days a week with a solid hour chaining (will you really get this
considering one has to form and fill a party , refill on drop outs, chase NMs?) so 120 weeks of doing nothing but Pagos.



Nope I'm out.



Note 1: Original link to the brave souls who did this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...ped_lockboxes/



Note 2: The actual success percentage is so close to zero a simple division isn't accurate. Using Wilson with continuity correction yields a 95% confidence interval of
0.0009 to 0.0059. Why Wilson , I'm lazy and could just look it up.

and yet i know 4-5 people personally that have it already, getting it from opening them.... lucky luck lucks...

[Rangar]

Or, you just need to pray to RNGesus or Lootsifer harder

[ko_]

What does it even look like?

[WhyAmIHere]

Or, you just need to pray to RNGesus or Lootsifer harder

I haven't heard Lootcifer used before, but by the heavens is it fitting, because it sure is hell dealing with RNG.

[DrWho2010]

What does it even look like?

like you're stuck outside in the cold wearing a swimsuit rubbing your hands together. from other angles it looks like you have the stomach bloops/cramps and are about to have an accident in your pants lol

[swiss_Momo]

gacha hell-tier RNG gonna RNG

I got my first and so far only frozen lockbox earlier this from the angra mainyu NM that ended up bringing me to lvl 35
it dropped the emote. I don't intend to go back into that place anytime soon