Shiver Emote : two YEARS of farming on average

[Yshan]

Some napkin math adjust as you see fit:


Our friends of reddit opened 1729 cold warped lockboxes and found a 0.002 chance of getting the emote. [Notes 1 and 2]
For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes.
But lockboxes drop from every 3rd to 4th mob and with eight people in the group

that's 36 thousand mobs. Assuming everyone needs one.

At one minute a mob results in 600 hours.
Playing 2 hours a day , 5 days a week with a solid hour chaining (will you really get this
considering one has to form and fill a party , refill on drop outs, chase NMs?) so 120 weeks of doing nothing but Pagos.



Nope I'm out.



Note 1: Original link to the brave souls who did this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comme...ped_lockboxes/



Note 2: The actual success percentage is so close to zero a simple division isn't accurate. Using Wilson with continuity correction yields a 95% confidence interval of
0.0009 to 0.0059. Why Wilson , I'm lazy and could just look it up.

[MomomiMomi]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

[Magic-Mal]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

I can confirm that this isn't true. It takes more than 10 seconds to get into Limsa Lominsa

[MomomiMomi]

I can confirm that this isn't true. It takes more than 10 seconds to get into Limsa Lominsa

People still use Limsa? Go to your apartment!


Anyway, to expand on what I said about buying on the MB, this analysis is failing to consider the total amount of man-hours that are being spent in Pagos. Not everyone who gets an emote is going to want it, and some people might get extra ones. You don't have to farm them yourself; trade is a thing.

[Claviusnex]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

That's assuming people on your server have them to sell. I've looked on the MB close to daily and sometimes more and have yet to run across any Pagos items.

[MomomiMomi]

That's assuming people on your server have them to sell. I've looked on the MB close to daily and sometimes more and have yet to run across any Pagos items.

Surprising. There were like 6+ on the MB on our server when I checked earlier.

[Iris_BP]

Surprising. There were like 6+ on the MB on our server when I checked earlier.

On Phoenix there is none and history tells me that there were 10 sells overall for 23mil+. This sucks.

[Mandudez]

That's assuming people on your server have them to sell. I've looked on the MB close to daily and sometimes more and have yet to run across any Pagos items.

Yup, my server MB has yet to see a Cassie Earring, only 5 total emote sales/listings. Less than 5 of each of the other rare Pagos drops too. That's 1 of each item (minus the earring) per week. And those numbers are only going to drop as less less people do Pagos.

[Krojack]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

Sure if you have 50,000,000 gil to throw at it.