Where is the "never before seen content"?

[Bourne_Endeavor]

I agree with the reasoning but I doubt that ppl were really that sold on ultimate and rival wings. I don't really think pvp are that interested in pvp on this game also the report of 200k extra players have come so late in 4.0 that imho it should've been were the drop should've started, since lucky bancho bases itself on activity they can't just be accounts, also since it was 3.5 months after SB release the effect of a new players shoudl've been reabsorbed by then.

They may have kept interest enough players stuck around an extra month or two, which happened to coincide with the census update. As for the sheer number, that is less surprising since people were likely still pushing through Stormblood. While an overall poor patch, 4.1 didn't bomb nearly to the extent 3.1 did. So you wouldn't see quite the same implosion. Another factor is your typical passerby bleed off. Significant drop offs six months or following a new expansion isn't too uncommon.

On your second point you are kinda mistaken. The second spike was registered on 4.3 release, that 90k extra players happened during eureka not after, somehow something held the bleed that eureka created and that is something I don't understand either, although tormenteddragon thought that perhaps it was because they had returning campaign in that period which might've been a factor.

That was my point though. People resubbed because of Eureka. The 4.25 census released two days before the actual patch, thus it's quite probable people waiting to hear opinions or see gameplay hadn't been accounted for yet were in the subsequent update.

As for Ultimate and Rival Wings. There was definitely hype surrounding both. Curiosity can be a major motivator. Those Twitch views likely enticed both old players and new. FFXIV saw numbers it's never seen before or since, UwU notwithstanding.