Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post
It's entirely possible to flip a coin 20 times and have it come up heads every time - and your 21st flip still only has a 50/50 chance of finally coming up tails, however "overdue" you feel it must be.
The problem is the 50% chance is assumed by getting increasing amount of people flipping coins. Over time, you should see the total number of flips be 50%, but there seems to be so much weirdness in the individual that sometimes its useless as a guide in the short term.

Like I remember in older rpgs they would give you this massively damaging weapon that hits 25% of the time, but they were 100% useless since you could miss every time in any particular encounter. Youd eventually see an average of one in four hits, but that doesn't help when one encounter you game over. So its true, but it can end up being useless too.