Huh, I've never noticed that. I just assumed that Enhanced Scatter worked like the Enchanted melee spells where they replaced the base version entirely, and never looked closer. It does indeed potentially chain the procs, although from my brief testing it's not very common. E.g. It's only a 1.6% probability to chain it three times in a row.
As for the average values, here's the math broken down a bit more distinctly:
Starting with no procs, probability of balance level after 4 GCDs worth of Scatter+verspell alternating:
25% - 22|22 balance
75% - 17|17 balance
Starting with no procs, probability of balance level after 4 GCD worth of Scatter only spam:
1.6% - 27|27 balance
14.1% - 22|22 balance
42.2% - 17|17 balance
42.2% - 12|12 balance
The scatter spam while having the potential to produce more mana is far more likely to produce less when alternating it with a verspell, even only having a 15.5% chance of getting >=22|22 compared to the 25% chance of single target weaving. And it comes with the trade off of a hefty 42.2% probability of only getting 12|12 balance. In the long term this all evens out somewhat, but given the short duration of fights, it's still more advantageous to take advantage of the more stable numbers produced by the single target weaving. I.e. you won't ever get the rare 27|27 result, but you're also not going to get the far more likely 12|12 result either.
As for the average results of 15.75 and 18.25 over time, that's an ~15% increase in balance built over time, which is not insignificant, particularly if you account for manafication which will boost that to an ~30% difference. That's essentially getting to your melee burst 15-30% faster.
As for the rotation as a whole, which is what this thread was originally about. I'm happy with the way it is now. It fits with the theme of RDM being a simpler gameplay style, yet is not as simple as some make it out to be. I can see in the next expansion them adding in an AoE specific verfinisher spell, but for now it's in a good spot. Something like for every Enchanted Moulinet you use you build a stack of a 30s duration buff up to 3 stacks and the AoE verfinisher can only be cast with at least one stack and the potency is based on the number of stacks you have.

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