Multiple Melding Success Rates (Constructive rant?)

[MeeYow]

10 Synths of success rate 22-23%

17 synths of ~41% success rate.

Every last one blew, that was 10M I didn't plan on throwing away.

Has anyone else experienced anything similar to this recently? I know a little too much about statistics to think this is plain bad luck. Most of my ls seems to agree the success % messages poorly represent actual success rates.

Do people think this would be worth running tests on? (When I'm not broke any more).

[Skies]

I'm a tabletop RPG player, so i deal with chances of success a lot.

This one time, I saw a person roll below 10 on a d100 something like 27 times in sequence (it was an attack that as long as it hit dealt damage, and the CoS reduced gradually and floored at 10. So much damage...)

I also saw a session where every player rolled over 90 on every single d100 roll in like, 12 or so rolls. The session ended before anyone rolled under 90 because it had already going on for 4 hours.

So yeah if you do decide to do a test... Do it, like, 3 different days because who knows

[TheVedis]

I'm a tabletop RPG player, so i deal with chances of success a lot.

This one time, I saw a person roll below 10 on a d100 something like 27 times in sequence (it was an attack that as long as it hit dealt damage, and the CoS reduced gradually and floored at 10. So much damage...)

I also saw a session where every player rolled over 90 on every single d100 roll in like, 12 or so rolls. The session ended before anyone rolled under 90 because it had already going on for 4 hours.

So yeah if you do decide to do a test... Do it, like, 3 different days because who knows

i saw a guy make d20 decapitations on over 80% of the monsters in one of my dungeons once, he had one lucky as hell streak with that die...(and he was using one of mine so i know he didnt have a loaded die)

[AmyNeudaiz]

Yeah, I've had similar issues. It's to the point to where if I ask someone to meld something for me I just say "Hey can you break this for me?"

I think I'm about 6-7 mil from just Thm gear.... let alone my other jobs...

[syntaxlies]

if it says 25% you cant assume 1 out of 4 will succeed. instead imagine rolling a four sided dice each time and having to have it land on number 1. you could roll it 20 times and never land on number 1.

anyways i had really bad luck with x2 melding, yesterday i double melded 3/6 pieces though which is my biggest success. i got a lvl 3 ad 4 on helm 3 and 2 on cobalt arms and 3 and 3 on cobalt legs. It seems like i have better success when the materia are not the same but thats prob just luck.


tip:always meld the lower stat/grade materia first

[MeeYow]

OK, so I didn't want anyone trying to explain probability to me, I get enough of that from my degree. I know to swap doors so I don't get the goat. What I was hoping for was data, experimental or anecdotal to justify (or not) me spending time on this.

Also, Syntaxlies, over a large enough sample yes you can. 27 melds isn't enough, but I think if I took the time to do about 100 at a fixed %, the expectation and meld success % wouldn't coincide well.

I mean, considering they state %s on the melds, my current results seem to disagree with the given success rates on 5% and .01% confidence levels....however, the sample size, etcetera.

Update: 0/14 on the 22% success lol.

[syntaxlies]

OK, so I didn't want anyone trying to explain probability to me, I get enough of that from my degree. I know to swap doors so I don't get the goat. What I was hoping for was data, experimental or anecdotal to justify (or not) me spending time on this.

Also, Syntaxlies, over a large enough sample yes you can. 27 melds isn't enough, but I think if I took the time to do about 100 at a fixed %, the expectation and meld success % wouldn't coincide well.

I mean, considering they state %s on the melds, my current results seem to disagree with the given success rates on 5% and .01% confidence levels....however, the sample size, etcetera.

Update: 0/14 on the 22% success lol.

my worst luck was on belts and trying to do 2 enmity's. i tried about 20 belts with success rates from 18-28 with different stat materias, failed them all.

sorry i don't have any graphs or anything to show you.
ive heard some say better luck when gear is full SB, and some say not. My 2 best materia x2 melds were on fully SB gear. In fact out of 3 pieces of fully SB gear i used 2 were successful x2 melds.luck maybe, maybe not.

[Robert_De_Niro]

0/61(thats 61 items have assploded not 61 trys) on gamblers crown... i have only had 1 triple meld on oll those trys 30 items have been using bsm hammer lvl 48 with lvl1 materia and using only +1 mnd +1 str my trys always assplode on the double or the triple and these things have like 30-42% sucsess.... lvl 50 bsm..

i have double melded IV's 1st try then assploded 1-5 doubles of III's so many times its not funny.... personally i think the % rate is total and utter (insert swear words here).. as with most things crafting related also with ffxi... SE continually proves to me random excrement is random excrement

i take no notice of the % rate and just meld i expect all my melds to assplode in flames and never expect a sucsess after the 1st one such is how i feel the suspected sucsess rate is

[MeeYow]

A lot of people are saying things like location while crafting, moon cycles etc affect the success rate. Most of it is just the same stuff people guessed at in 11, I would hope if it DID affect the rate, it would be reflected in the stated success % otherwise....well the success % is wrong before tests even get off the ground.

Update: Wow, 15 synths and 6Mil (on this specific synth) later, a +30int thunder brand _._ le sigh

I am going to start doing ~50 meld samples starting at 2x T1 and then increasing tiers. I will post if I see anything as statistically significant as my past two rather unfortunate runs.

[HoolieWho]

For double melds with an advertised 25.5% success rate, I am 27/57 = 30% successful.

Good luck!