New Year's Poem 2018

[Cilia]

Well, I guess the added context from the non-EN versions of the 4.0 stinger put a pretty definitive nail in the coffin of the "Varis is Going to Turn Against Elidibus and Ally with the Eorzeans™" hypothesis. Still... possible, even less probable now though.

I stand by the rest of it pending further information from 4.2.

[Theodric]

I'd like to see Varis temporarily overthrown by an Elidibus posing as Zenos. I want it to be revealed that much of Varis' more aggressive policies have been orchestrated through Elidibus' scheming. What we've seen and heard of Varis - and the Garleans as a whole - suggests that they will do whatever is needed to ensure their survival and prosperity. Yet there's a disconnect because we don't get to see that particular angle play out for ourselves.

Varis fending off an attack upon his life and retreating from Garlemald with a handful of loyal supporters could bring him to the Garlean Consulate within Kugane, leading him to meet with the Warrior of Light and explain the situation. Perhaps the circumstances surrounding Regula's tragic demise cause him to trust the Warrior of Light...and then together they learn to tolerate each other and reclaim Garlemald before Elidibus can bring destruction not only to Garlemald itself but all of Hydaelyn.

It'd certainly be far more engaging than yet another tale where the Warrior of Light manages to waltz into the heart of a nation and force reform through brute force and minimal meaningful losses on his part. It'd also be great if a morally grey male character could be kept around and redeemed for once instead of falling victim to the 'redemption through death' trope.

Rufus surviving the events of FF7 and retaining his control over Shinra, for instance, worked very nicely. He retained much of what made him Rufus yet was pragmatic enough to push for some reform here and there. Seifer is another great example - he served as a secondary antagonist for the entirety of the game yet he isn't killed off and although he is 'redeemed' he does not lose his initial charm and appeal in the process.

[Lauront]

The only issue I have with it is that it'd make Elidibus just yet another Ascian - powerful but not much, or at all, different to Nabriales, Lahabrea or Igeyorhm. I have a nasty suspicion that they will make use of such a ploy, but it'd be a waste IMO. My hope is that if Elidibus is taking on Zenos's guise, as is suspected, he is doing something a little more nuanced than simply planning to take control of the Empire with a view to sowing discord, even if that would be a quintessentially Ascian thing to do. Too predictable and boring for me, at this point. He definitely knew what he was doing, though, when he casually gave away Nidhogg's eyes to Ilberd.

Varis appears to be honourable, even if ruthless. He is definitely guided by a moral compass, unlike Zenos. I'd rather not see him die, yet the Prima Vista plotline did seem to make a point of eulogising the previous Emperor in some regards, whilst Varis is painted as more concerned with marshalling the Empire's resources towards war and keeping potential sources of dissent under control. So I do like your idea, but through a catalyst other than Elidibus.

[Balipu]

I'd like to see Varis temporarily overthrown by an Elidibus posing as Zenos. I want it to be revealed that much of Varis' more aggressive policies have been orchestrated through Elidibus' scheming. What we've seen and heard of Varis - and the Garleans as a whole - suggests that they will do whatever is needed to ensure their survival and prosperity. Yet there's a disconnect because we don't get to see that particular angle play out for ourselves.
Varis fending off an attack upon his life and retreating from Garlemald with a handful of loyal supporters could bring him to the Garlean Consulate within Kugane, leading him to meet with the Warrior of Light and explain the situation. Perhaps the circumstances surrounding Regula's tragic demise cause him to trust the Warrior of Light...and then together they learn to tolerate each other and reclaim Garlemald before Elidibus can bring destruction not only to Garlemald itself but all of Hydaelyn.

It'd certainly be far more engaging than yet another tale where the Warrior of Light manages to waltz into the heart of a nation and force reform through brute force and minimal meaningful losses on his part. It'd also be great if a morally grey male character could be kept around and redeemed for once instead of falling victim to the 'redemption through death' trope.

Rufus surviving the events of FF7 and retaining his control over Shinra, for instance, worked very nicely. He retained much of what made him Rufus yet was pragmatic enough to push for some reform here and there. Seifer is another great example - he served as a secondary antagonist for the entirety of the game yet he isn't killed off and although he is 'redeemed' he does not lose his initial charm and appeal in the process.

This does not happen often but I agree with your every word here.

The only issue I have with it is that it'd make Elidibus just yet another Ascian - powerful but not much, or at all, different to Nabriales, Lahabrea or Igeyorhm.

Well who knows why he would need the Garlean Empire to himself? It might be a part of a long game. Maybe he plans for the Scions and Varis to alli. The thing is with Elidibus he usually sets up his plans that he wins either way.

[Cilia]

The issue with that angle is that Elidibus is a schemer (or as senpai puts it, a snake); he doesn't make direct actions or force things to happen. He nudges, he whispers, he manipulates - leading a military coup sounds extremely out of character for him.

Elidibus doesn't need to lead a coup against Varis. He's already gotten him to insist on binding eikons instead of eliminating them, create supersoldiers capable of using the Echo like Dragon Ball Super's Ultra Instinct at the cost of roughly 100 : 1, and biologically and cybernetically enhance what is implied to be a Garlean child into a cybernetic magitek monstrosity (Inferno) on top of all the other horrific things in Castrum Abania. If a parallel to previous FF antagonists must be made, I rank Varis as closer to President Shinra than Rufus. Lolorito is already fitting the bill of "morally ambiguous male antagonist who is redeemed and lives" (that's an extremely narrow character archetype, by the way) by helping the protagonists for his own ends rather than out of benevolence. Do you believe it realistic for Varis to do the same, given the above things he has directly or indirectly consented to? Why is another character of the same (extremely specific) archetype needed (not that Varis is really morally ambiguous in light of his implicit consent to all of Zenos' horrific experiments)?

... past that, I am going to wait and see what 4.2 brings. The main chunk of it will probably have to do with Yotsuyu, Gosetsu, and be "4.1, Doma Style," but with information from the stinger guesses can gain accuracy.

[Balipu]

Well if Fordola can be redeemed so can Varis. You are right that Elidibus doesn't really takes matters directly in his own hands. But who knows? Maybe this time it is necessary. Maybe he needs a coup against Varis to push him to do the things he wants. We can only make assumptions. We know what his end goal is. The resurrection of Zodiark. But we can only guess what his current plans are.

[Theodric]

Well, Lolorito counts, sure - but I was more referring to antagonists that aren't already aligned with Eorzea and do not simply become outright defectors where their homeland and people are concerned. Furthermore with how slow a burn the overall Garlean story arc has been I would like to hope that the payoff is going to be a bit more nuanced than a straightforward corruption storyline. I also do not want the Garlean 'Larsa' to be a complete apologist like Aymeric. They need to be, well, Garlean in their attitude but ultimately committed to peace for the benefit of their homeland, people and territories under their care. The British Empire may have lost much of its territory abroad but it did not lose all of its territory and it remains idolised on the world stage to this very day as its associated accents and culture are actively admired.

I imagine Garlemald is much the same in terms of inspiring awe and admiration, especially when factoring in stuff like the Prima Vista and the wonders of Magitek. Imagine how cool it would be if a certain opera from FF6 happens to originate in Garlemald in FF14? At any rate...a story where Garlemald loses everything does not interest me in the slightest. Especially when its people were driven out of their original home before being forced to live in a wasteland that seems to be far bleaker than post-Calamity Coerthas before accounting for the conveniences of Magitek.

Overall, though, with how much love Final Fantasy Tactics and Final Fantasy XII receive in this game I have little doubt that Garlemald will be handled well overall. As an aside, I also hope that we get more clarification as to the state of Regula's family members and Varis' wife/Zenos' mother.

[Fenral]

In conclusion, #GaiusLives. <immediately goes down in a hail of popotofire>

Nonsense. There are references to destiny and overdue returns, which can only mean G'raha Tia is finally coming back.

[Belhi]

I don't think we will see Varis dethroned by Elidibus and I don't think we will make an alliance with him to go to Garlemald. I think a much more likely set up is that whoever owned that glove we saw in 4.1 in the Garlean scene will be our point of contact and we will aid him in some fashion. I expect Garlemald may be a hotbed of factional intrigue so finding allies who aren't tied to these factions may require looking outside of Garlemald. That said, I don't rule of the possibility that Varis might end up sympathetic. I don't think he isn't responsible for the harsher government in Garlemald, cause that would make him seem pretty weak. I think the more likely situation is something akin to the third Fable game were you discover that the tyrant is being a tyrant because he feels it is the only way he can take the steps necessary to prepare his nation for a much more terrible threat. Perhaps as things fall apart we might end up working with him but I think things will have to go pear shaped before that happens.

Still, the fact he is so dismissive of his son and heir's death is somewhat of a negative.

[Balipu]

Still, the fact he is so dismissive of his son and heir's death is somewhat of a negative.

Not really because Zenos was a sadistic prick who tortured the population to make them rebell cause he was bored without bloodshed.