Please be truthful with us...

[Maeka]

I've long been of the opinion that one of two things is going on with the RNG and the listed % values you see in the gathering UI:

1). SE is lying to us about our % chances, that there are hidden modifiers that the game DOESN'T tell us about, and that the % we see on the screen is not the final % used in the formula,

2). The RNG system that SE is using is absolutely terrible.

The reason I say this, is because yet again, I am seeing RNG that does not match, anywhere near, what the listed % is. I will use today (and yesterday) as an example.

On both days, I was sent to gather items in which I had 80% success, 6% HQ. Supposedly.

On both days, on a rather consistent rate, I was failing to gather 2-3 times every other node, and almost every single node had 1 fail. In fact, yesterday, the item was Sugar Beet and one of the nodes is a Gather +2 node.

I kid you not, SIX OF THOSE IN A ROW FAILED 3-4 OUT OF 6 TIMES.

This is nowhere near 80%.

I could understand a fluke here, and a fluke there, but c'mon. This is happening on a far too constant and steady basis for me to believe the numbers shown in the UI are actually correct. I am guessing that the ACTUAL chance lies somewhere between 50-60% rather than the 80% the game claims I have.

Tomorrow, I'm going to actually tally up the results if I've enough time and keep note of the nodes and how many fails. But until then, here's a screenshot of some of the stuff I'm talking about:

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.n...74A66D66A5E9F/

And this wasn't the only time this happened, either. The node before it was a Gather+1 and I failed 3 out of 5. The node after it was a normal node that failed twice in a row as well. At least half of the 90% nodes in this session had at least 1 fail.

So.... please use the *final* % as the number we see in our UI, or get a better RNG system that actually gives us the intended % chance.

[NorthernLadMSP]

I know exactly what you're saying, and I agree. It's the reason I loathe gathering. I'll have a 92% success rate and CONSISTENTLY get 2 out of 4 fails. It's total BS.

[Maeka]

Also, I note that the game loves extremes. You rarely get the 80%, 6%... no, you'll get constant fails, until you've gathered 200+ of them and then suddenly you'll get 3 HQs in a row from the same 6% node without even using +HQ skills.

This is what is making me believe that the RNG system they use is terrible. You see this in bad RNG systems, where the computer will roll <20 on a 1-100 5 times in a row and then >80 5 times in a row, and then a bunch of numbers in the middle, and then give you five <10 in a row, etc.

That's the sign of a horrible RNG system.

[Maku]

Those percentages are not based off a few hundred swings. They are based off of thousands. So in a smaller sample set the %s can seem off by a good amount. I have gotten 5 HQs off a single node with 5% change before. It isn't that the %s are wrong or they are lying to you, they are just basing those %s off of a much MUCH larger sample size then we can effectively gather at a single node or will ever gather at one time.

However, larger sample sizes give more accurate %s.

[ChameleonMS]

At least half of the 90% nodes in this session had at least 1 fail.

That is almost exactly 90%. Half the nodes had at least 1 fail, thus, you hit 7/8 (1 failure even second node). Which is 87.5%. I know your pain but over enough gathers, the percentages do work out. Bad streaks do occur and they just suck. The only solution is to get better gear until your reach 95%, then use Sharp Vision to remove the RNG completely.

[Elamys]

Plenty of people have done the math on this and the percentages ARE correct. When you take everyone who's doing these, over a period of time, the chance to gather is correct.

Every single time you gather, you have a chance to fail. And a 20% chance to fail each and every swing is actually pretty big. Having an 80% success rate doesn't mean you'll do 10 swings and only 2 of them will fail.

Streaking/clumping does happen on occasion even with the best RNG systems, but it's not some sign that the gathering percentages are incorrect. I would say that on the whole, for the 2 years I've been playing and gathering, I've never felt the percentages were incorrect.

[Maeka]

Streaking/clumping does happen on occasion even with the best RNG systems, but it's not some sign that the gathering percentages are incorrect. I would say that on the whole, for the 2 years I've been playing and gathering, I've never felt the percentages were incorrect.

On occasion!?

It's every. freaking. time. I go to gather I get clumps/streaks. It's never a gradual curve, it's *always* clumps of fails or clumps of HQs with long dry spells between of nothing.

[Elamys]

You either don't gather very much, or you're blowing it out of proportion. Since most people only remember when the RNG was bad and not extremely good it's not super surprising.

This conversation actually relates to Hasty Touch, but I've dug it out again:
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...=1#post4078415

Your sample size of just yourself simply isn't big enough to say that the percentages are wrong.

[QT_Melon]

If you want to know about RNG: http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...=1#post2310334

Conversely, if the number of trials (sampling number) is low, bias arises in random numbers.

[ManuelBravo]

On occasion!?

It's every. freaking. time. I go to gather I get clumps/streaks. It's never a gradual curve, it's *always* clumps of fails or clumps of HQs with long dry spells between of nothing.

I Agree with Elamys to I've been playing this game for a long time and for the majority of the time I believed I had the same issue as Maeka. However, the more I play it the more it makes sense. Lets take a few examples, when it comes to gathering or crafting is per that attempt and based on the difficulty vs your current level makes a huge difference. If you go back and do easier locations / receipts the odds are in your favor 80%-90% of the time. So yes there are some hidden perimeters that can influence , yet its more of a common sense kind of deal. If you go back and revisit those spot while gathering with higher stats RNG seems more fair. If your a lvl 65 gathering on a 69 node your odds are against you unless your 100%. Once again common sense. To ensure higher HQ you need around 2-3x the perception recommended. Same things work for battle the more you contribute the higher your chances based on role. There are some items that some people believe may influence the out come. Example Lucky eggs. Personally I did a 6 month test on it. In my experience it did help me a bit more having them than not. Another thing that is in debate is your birth sign and time. If your within the characters guardian phase it helps somewhat. How far have you tested it? Have you taken that into consideration? Are you well geared for that level or are you under gear? soooo many things to consider, then again common sense is a dying trait . It's a matter of what you think works for you that your just plain salty.