Please be truthful with us...

[Elamys]

This game's testing has always been internal, whereas Warframe has done public testing. FFXIV's team rarely releases internal formulas and data like that, so I wouldn't hold your breath; if the line of thinking is "I'm going to assume it's completely wrong and has been wrong this whole time because of my personal experiences" there's little point in continuing the conversation. FFXIV has been out since 2.0 for a while now; thinking that they haven't tested their RNG is...there's a word for it, but I don't want to be mean, because I know it feels really bad to fail stuff like that over and over. But you sincerely need to have a little trust in the game.

[QT_Melon]

It's a shame that even when the information is in the thread there are those that still refuse to believe it and want to argue with a small sampling bias.

[Ziggyzapps]

It's a shame that even when the information is in the thread there are those that still refuse to believe it and want to argue with a small sampling bias.

I'd be more worried the RNG was broken if people weren't getting streaks of bad luck and complaining lol.

[Drkdays]

I know I've gotten enough wtf95%fail? to question their given numbers.

[Frizze]

Maeka, in actual daily life 0.4% odds isnt even uncommon. Thats roughly 1 in 250. Thats like the odds of the person behind you in the drivethru line ordering the same dinner as you. Powerball odds are closer to 0.000000003%. Or to put it plainly, a bit more then 100 million times less likely then what youre describing. Beating 1/250 odds twice in a week? Roughly one out of every 80 players should have that luck in any given week. The last subscriber count i heard was somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 million. That means thousands of people have luck like that every week. And the cognitive fallacy stuff from the dev link is 100% real. You think there is something wrong with the RNG(youve said so several times in this post), so you look for patterns that arent there to prove to yourself that youre right.

[Drkdays]

And the cognitive fallacy stuff from the dev link is 100% real. You think there is something wrong with the RNG(youve said so several times in this post), so you look for patterns that arent there to prove to yourself that youre right.[/QUOTE]

I think there is definitely something fishy with the percentages, and Maeka isn\\'t alone in thinking and saying so. Cognitive fallacy? Failing several times in a row multiple times (I speak from personal experience, not Maeka\\'s) with a high % is anything but logical. It\\'s notable fail rates, not once in a blue moon like logic says it should be when the success rate is 85-99%. You can very nearly count on failing at least a few times if you are less than 100%, and that seems illogical when talking about fail rates of 15% or less.

[Alien_Gamer]

If you want testing done, do it yourself. I had doubts about it so every time I gathered or crafted I kept track of my successes and failures. I learned the RNG looked completely borked for the first few days, kinda wacky for the first few weeks, then it started evening out as I got more data points. Fast forward a few thousand RNG rolls later and my rates were similar to what was advertised. They weren't exact, no, but given a few thousand data sets compared to the multiple hundreds of thousands of data sets devs use to test, its still a very small sample size and prone to streaks. I saw enough to convince myself that the streaks were infuriating but the percentages were correct.

But dont take my word for it, I know you won't believe me. So, test it yourself.

[Lucke]

% is per swing, not per node. If you have a 50% chance on a 4 swing node, that DOES NOT mean you will get 2 successful swings. But ahhh, I remember those classic 90% chance to HQ crafts, anddddddd NQ!.

[Kosmos992k]

Crafting and Gathering is driven by an RNG with predetermined sequences that rpeat. It's not dive by the % chance displayed. In crafting conditions come in well known sequences, failures that fly in the face of statistical norms happen with alarming regularity. Gathering is the same to me, overall it's roughly correct but the runs and patters that happen are too regular for a true RNG. Basically the entire thing is fixed. But then again since crafting and gathering in HW and SB are designed to be punishing so that only a few ever get to the top, I'm not surprised, the fix is in, the RNG is a lie.

Oh, one other thing, yes, to those saying that over the long run it evens out, I'm sure it does in terms of total outcomes. But the distribution of numbers generated by the RNG isn't uniform, it has patterns and bias within the overall outcome rate. It's well done in that regard, but it's still not very good within that scope.

[QT_Melon]

Cognitive fallacy continues