in a 10 minute fight, according to some napkin math I just did, you can expect to cast aero/thunder 100 times. This, in itself, makes that 3.125% chance much more common.
In addition, between acceleration, swiftcast, and guarantee procs from holy/flare, the ratio of procs to no-procs is actually much higher realistically than 50%.
For example, if you're gaining (on average) half a proc every 5 seconds, acceleration starts at the top and bumps your first gcd to 1 proc in the first 5 seconds. At 35 seconds, acceleration comes off and adds another half proc, putting you at 4.5 procs. To simplify things, cut the melee combo out of the "timer" and call it a proc every 40 seconds, putting you at 6.0 procs at 40 seconds. You'll note that you only need to spend a proc every 5 seconds, which actually puts you at a boon of procs, more than you can use.
Compound this with swiftcast, which, every time its used, provides an additional half proc and simultaneously snips out a proc that you would have had to spend. Compound it further with the fact that every time RNG fails you and you need jolt, you get a free proc.
All of these factors, managed properly, create a situation where you're generally needing to cast jolt very few times. To fish an immediate example, a top-20 score of neo exdeath, this red mage casted jolt a total of 12 times out of his 187 non-melee/non-finisher spells. or 6.4%. To take a random sample of one of my shinryu runs, 15 out of 190, or 7.89%.
Yup! This is a common occurence! I, in fact, would recommend prioritizing impact over stone/fire if impact would otherwise fall off. It helps you fish for another proc. It's kinda like moving up the jolt you'll eventually have to cast on the schedule in order to not actually have to cast jolt again. While it does generate 1 less mana, in order for that to be relevant it would actually have to prevent you from using a melee combo, which is... unlikely.
Don't do this.Originally Posted by Anyone suggesting running macros on your gcd