I would add this. We can do searches and see how many characters are logged in at that moment, but that doesn't translate to how many human beings actually play the game. To find that out we would need to see how many unique account logins not tied to the same billing account take place over the course of a billing cycle.
The search's don't eliminate two boxers, rmt, or account for people who play infrequently and whose login hours don't overlap other infrequent players. Also whatever time of day these searches are being performed it's midnight for someone in some other part of the world. When you add in the dateline there is only 1 day of the week that NA/EU/JP players share in the officially recognized weekend. The actual number of people who play during a billing cycle could be 2 to 3 times the average number of characters who are logged on at any given time, or it could be as little as 1% more.
All the search really gives us is an average of how many people we have to do things with on any given day. I'm not trying to argue that this isn't relevant to the game or our experiences in it, but lets not confuse it with the total number of active players. For that we really need something along the lines of the old Vanadiel Census to be created for XIV. If and when things turn around SE may, hopefully, be willing to show us census numbers for the 1.0 lifecycle.
I'm going to do a bit of conjecture here, but it's not unreasonable to think that Yoshi's team had to sell the 2.0 concept to Wada prior to them announcing it as the future of FF XIV. Its also not unreasonable to think that he has had to justify not pulling the plug and cutting their losses on occasion. I'd bet that Japanese corporate bean-counters aren't that much different than American ones. We only have a game riding on their success; the people at SE have their careers, and ability to provide for their families riding on it. SE has publicly made it's commitment to see this through till the PS3 launch. That means they have made their decision on the future of this games development. They wont be declaring the game a flop until after the end of the V2 free to play trial period at the earliest. Until then you have a few hundred people to play around with.
I can't speak for everyone, but my linkshells don't lack for people to do things. Unless they all ragequit I'm not going to run out of people to do things with anytime soon, and in the end that's what really matters. If your server lacks for people you could take a break or reroll on a three chicken server. Join a PL group and do a few SH parties, and you will be 50 in no time. I am pretty sure I saw something about world transfers being possible in the future so you can always move that toon back to your old server or vice versa.