there should be a time line / dungeon chart

[Fenral]

Guess I was misremembering that scene as a 3.0 cutscene. I do remember being acknowledged by Estinien, but I thought it came later on.

It's actually both. In 2.55, Estinien will acknowledge you based on your DRG quest completion, implying that the DRG job quests can be considered canon anywhere in the 2.0-2.55 bubble. In Heavensward proper, Estinien will acknowledge you as another Azure Dragoon regardless of even job crystal possession. A WHM-main friend of mine who started with Heavensward was very confused by this.

I think the simplest metric we have is whether or not the reference to X content appears in voiced dialogue or not. Since voiced scenes don't use text-replacement macros like regular dialogue, they have to make the choice to either solidify continuity or evade direct references entirely.