What 3.5 did was set up a war with Garlemald we cant avoid. Ilberd's move was brilliant. Not only did he frame the Eorzean Alliance but the summoning of a primal of that power, even if it was somehow stopped, would never be ignored by the Garleans. One way or another Garlemald was going to make a move after that hence the Eorzean Alliances choice to move pre-emptively.
Honestly there are a lot of reasons for the EA to try and drive Garlemald out of Ala Mhigo. Ala Mhigo gives Garlemald a foothold in Eorzea that gives them much greater access to the rest of Eorzea. Holding Ala Mhigo effectively severs their land access to Eorzea, limiting their ability to move troops and support the remaining castrums. That's ignoring arguments about the ethics of the treatment of subjugated non-citizen Ala Mhigans or the refugee issues the other city states have.
I think Anonymoose is on the right track with why they went with the Yda/Lyse thing but I think they handled it well. It fits pretty comfortably in place. As for Yda being Zenos, I think that is extremely unlikely. They have said Zenos is the son and heir of the current emperor and probably rather young himself. Why would Yda be named the Heir to Garlemald?


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