what worked for me is basically the rath rotation.
but you only use one piece by piece at the beginning and you may have to sacrifice a hasty touch attempt at the end for another careful synthesis II

requires a little bit of using the brain but i just did about 10 attempts with the store bought components to test and worked for me every time so far. Pretty good odds for like 800g worth of components

all the ones other than orphanage donation i just used a basic 40 durability macro with perfect success so far