Confirmation bias or trend: players who join In-Progress are better, on average

[Vaer]

Sometimes people ask in their linkshells or free company to queue in progress for a rep if someone bails or they kick someone and no one fills in a reasonable amount of time. Might have something to do with it.

[Shurrikhan]

I'm guessing it's neither an inherent trend nor bias—just statistical average. Well, maybe some bias. If you had a below average player, chances are that when you mulligan the outcome will improve. And if you got at all used to that guy, even average will seem a bit above average.

[Adire]

I join in-progress occasionally hoping for an easy, faster clear. A lot of times it ends up being that someone got kicked or left for a reason....as in the group was clueless and wasn't doing their jobs adequately and the person I replaced left due to that.

So I've stopped queuing in progress mostly since there's a big risk for wasted time.

[CatStarPrime]

Interesting... (despite my apparent seniority on this account) I have been playing since October 2013, after 2.0 dropped, and I can't remember ever getting a backfiller who was not better than the person who DC'd or left (I have yet to be in a group who kicked anyone). The back-filled person has always been good enough, we were able to complete without further adieu.

I wonder if this could be an example of the "Always Switch Doors" scenario in Game Theory?

[LuckiGoLucki]

I'd like to add something I have been noticing lately. My 3 friends and I try to do our Dunscaith run together once a week. As usual, sometimes a wipe will happen (people still aren't getting these mechanics) and sometimes around 1/4 or 1/2 of the raid group will leave with a "you guys all suck" departure. We wait a little and get replacements and the rest of the raid will go on fine. This has caused me to take on the motto: "It's the bad ones who leave."

[Culfinrandir]

Confirmation bias - you've just suffered through a terrible player so even an 'average' player seems wonderful. Many people who queue 'in-progress' are highly confident in their game play & as a result appear better than the majority of the playerbase.

[Faliandra]

I have to agree, they seem to be a whole lot better than the person that got replaced.
I've seen it happening many times.

I was also figuring that it must be due to the fact that many newer players probably dont even know about the "Join in progress" feature, as someone already had mentioned.

[matteoxyz]

I have noticed this too. I think it's partly due to confirmation bias but also a hero mentality making the new person more driven and being under more scrutiny due to popping in by themselves.

[Awful]

I usually join in progress for a friend/FC buddy it's rare that I que in progress solo. However when I have it's usually new people or a group that has qued together and the timers almost up and they're at the last boss. It's not a problem for the most part since I can coach em but I hate getting lvl 60 content and having to coach ilvl 250+ people about their rotations, and why they can't make the Nidhogg story enrage timer.

[bounddreamer]

I dunno about confirmation bias, but I started queuing in progress as a tank because I had some runs where we never got a tank and a party member said "yeah they never queue in progress" So I started doing it. Then I began doing it for the other roles as well, and I've rarely had a bad experience. In fact, usually the group was very happy to see me and it was a problem free run from the point I joined.

Idk about my dps but I am a healer who stance dances and a tank who pulls appropriately for the dungeon and doesn't lose hate.