This game has seriously messed up RNG

[MistakeNot]

The main problem with RNG in this game is that it's not made with human players in mind. I think the numbers are made to work out to the correct percentage if you do like a billion attempts, which is how SE tests it. However, we as players usually do more in the 10-100 range, and it doesn't work out as well in those smaller sample sizes. So pretty much everyone who has ever gathered has probably failed at least 5 in a row at 90% chance or higher, and that feels super broken. So even though the math might work out to be close in the long run it's a terrible system for the players of this game, because it's frustrating to us to see 90% and then not get 9 out of 10, because it actually means 9 billion out of 10 billion and all our attempts were in the wrong billion.

Truth is, if you don't get occasional streaks of good or bad luck, then that is evidence of a bad RNG.

[Accelerating]

ITT: People who don't know how probability works.

[Fawkes]

Truth is, if you don't get occasional streaks of good or bad luck, then that is evidence of a bad RNG.

Yes, I know. I want "bad" RNG. Actual random is not good for everything.

[Aramina]

So you don't want actual random in your RANDOM number generator. K.

[Lexia]

Reclaim fails a lot more often than 10% of the time.

A person probably not that good of crafter anyways if they having to use reclaim a lot, lets not blame that on rng.

[Fawkes]

So you don't want actual random in your RANDOM number generator. K.

Not sure why you can't wrap your head around it. I don't want a system where one person can get their atma from the first fate and another person has to do 200 fates for the same atma. I don't want it to be arbitrarily unfair for the sake of being "good" RNG.

[Rizon]

RNG has its places. It is appropriate for lotting on loot. It is not appropriate for crafting to the extent that SE employs it. IMO your success rate for something like Hasty Hand should be influenced by the craft level and your level and your Craftsmanship/Control levels. The higher your personal numbers the greater success you should have, consistently. My non specialist numbers are 1005/955. In infuriates me when I blow 3 straight Hasty Hands on a level 20 craft. BTW if you notice RNG is not completely random but the pattern of success to failure varies at a noticeable rate.

[LineageRazor]

Didn't read nine-page thread full of folks who don't know what random means, and folks trying to explain it to them. I'm going to toss in my two cents anyway.

The RNG in this game is working fine. It may seem like it's full of bad luck with all the bad luck posts on the forums - but that's because people rarely post their good luck, and NEVER their normal luck. In addition, you are much more likely to remember your bad luck streaks than your good luck streaks, so it can seem like that's all you get. That is perception bias.

I'm not against SE adjusting RNG with a "mercy" rule, stating that if you get a bad enough run of bad luck you get a guaranteed success. Some RNG-dependent games work that way. But I'm also perfectly fine with the "true" RNG system already in place. If you understand how probability works, than you start to realize that "nothing but bad luck" is significantly less likely to happen to you than being struck by a meteor.

[Bluejay]

Shortly after ARB's launch I collected the results of my mining grind (several hundred) and did some analysis to see if the results matched the stated probabilities for high quality finds. I got a 95% confidence level that the results DID NOT match (which is unfortunately not really that high).

With only 95% confidence I can't say too much, but based on that an my observations I think something is up with those numbers. I doubt their random number generator is at fault. If I had to guess I would say there are factors that affect success that are not represented in those numbers. Maybe some kind of 'biorhythm' affect or weather...

The fact that the game uses so much RNG to stretch out content is another topic altogether.

[Aramina]

Not sure why you can't wrap your head around it. I don't want a system where one person can get their atma from the first fate and another person has to do 200 fates for the same atma. I don't want it to be arbitrarily unfair for the sake of being "good" RNG.

I understand fine, however, it seems you don't. Random is neither good, nor bad. It just... is. That's how math works.

edit: If you want a system other than RNG that is fine, but this talk of good RNG and bad RNG needs to stop :P