

i've seen this and from my personal experience since i moved from NA to JP server, I can't win a loot roll to save my life. constant roll losses when rolling 95+. If i don't roll a 99, i can just forget about it.

Did you set your language to JP (apparently it helps)?
Joking aside, I've also noticed a lot of streaks in the RNG system, but it does seem to be balanced over time (i.e. for each 99% failure, I have gotten a 1% success at some point, though usually not when I needed it). One positive side effect of these streaks, at least from the small experiment I have done so far, is that it may be easier to get melds on while you're on a lucky streak (e.g. after getting multiple HQ garthers in a row)... it's not perfect of course, but from the dozen or so 10-16% melds I have done so far while on a 'lucky streak', I am greatly exceeding the odds, and my expectations from previous melding experience.
Last edited by Acidblood; 03-13-2017 at 02:16 PM.
This kind of thing is just a bias. You tend to notice floor tanks getting the mount more than when average or good players get the mount. You think the latter is "normal" and you dismiss them.


Yes, failing a gather or craft at 95%+ several times in a row seems like "bad RNG". But if you do 10000+ gathering/crafting attemps, the total observed success rate is likely to be close to the stated base success rate.
That being said, I think that the amount of mechanics that rely on RNG in this game is too great. I can understand some of the crafting abilities being RNG-based, but have RNG decide whether or not I hit that rock in the correct way with my pickaxe is a little silly. Also, crystal FATE grinds etc is a stupid thing to have in a long, grindy quest because two people doing the exact same thing on the exact same quest should see the exact same progress. Any other outcome just seems unfair.
I don't think on its own, from a purely mathematical perspective, the RNG is "wrong" in some manner. But its employed very badly - too many things rely upon stings of it - one good roll doesn't matter, you need to get 5 or more in a run. The longer that string is, the more limited your odds become. even the "side stuff" is RG heavy, like acropolis or WT. POTD gearing upgrades, chest drops, having to roll and pray after every battle. The odds have been so long in some cases, it's simply banging your head against a wall. Basically, the mathematics of RNG aren't the point any more, it's been so heavilly over used it's destroying the enjoyment of the game.
I actually still do it, but just as needed, I'm geared enough to do maybe 3* now, but not interested in grinding blue scripts to buy an action, or in RNG tossing out mats that have either taken a long time to grind or come at great expense. Or in wasting millions in crafting gear failures and melding failures - My "small sample" is probably 50-100 creafts per week. sometimes for blue script, usually the red ones, plus I make pots/food for my gathering, and sometimes for the crafting or furniture items. I just can't take it seriously anymore, or invest much skin in it, it's just too much of a crapshoot for me. With the exception of the food, I'm way overgeared, so the RNG doesn't affect the final outcome in the majority of cases - but I still see the same patterns of failures over and over, and know that's just going to continue with higher recipes as well. I honestly wish it was just a case of a few bad experiences and a small sample, but I've also gone through 1000's of synths since HW came out and am just seeing the same thing over and over. I might go back to it more seriously in time, will just need to wait and see what SB has to offer.
50-100 may sound like a lot but this is actually peanuts when it comes to RnG. This game's RnGenerator is rated for 10^23 iterations or something, true RnG is rated to infinity. We humans are just so prone to confirmation bias because our minds cannot envision infinity (or 10^23 for that matter).My "small sample" is probably 50-100 creafts per week. sometimes for blue script, usually the red ones, plus I make pots/food for my gathering, and sometimes for the crafting or furniture items. I just can't take it seriously anymore, or invest much skin in it, it's just too much of a crapshoot for me. With the exception of the food, I'm way overgeared, so the RNG doesn't affect the final outcome in the majority of cases - but I still see the same patterns of failures over and over, and know that's just going to continue with higher recipes as well.
The RNG does feel extremely streaky at times. For example last night I was using my mount roulette and it gave me the same damn Sanuwa four times in a row. IIRC Apple had this same "problem" when they introduced shuffle to iPods etc. The randomness was too true, if you can say that, and people complained that it didn't feel random because same songs seemed to be playing too often. So Apple had to tweak their algorithms a bit. Couldn't find a source for this with 20 sec googling, sorry. IMHO at least some RNG aspects could use tweaking in this game. Like the mount roulette I mentioned. If I keep rejecting some mount, maybe reject those results automatically?
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Reclaim fails a lot more often than 10% of the time.
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